Archive for March 29, 2012

Our Latest Seeking Alpha Research: Time to Hedge — 5 Stocks to Sell Short Via Options

Stocks are looking pretty overbought and overvalued right now, and we think the time is right to start shorting some things that are the most egregiously pumped up on hope right now. The following 5 stocks trade at multiples only an investment banker could love, and we have some suggestions on how to play the short side here using options to limit your risk.

While we are long term bears on the dollar and certainly think the overall market will be higher in five or ten years than it is today, we also know that nothing moves straight up or straight down. Buying low and selling high means right now is the time to sell, not buy these 5 momentum stocks.

Salesforce.com (CRM) — Saleforce.com is trading at astronomical multiples of cash flows, earnings, and book values. Projections seem to be far too rosy when compared with current financial statements in our view and now may be the time to short this again. Cash flows are almost entirely generated through rising short term debt or increasing payables here and to us that is a huge red flag. Revenue growth without corresponding profit growth should be also be a red flag for most investors. The “cloud revolution” may not be as revolutionary as once imagined and even if it is, it looks to us like Microsoft, Google, and Oracle will be the bigger players in this arena.

Read more here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/466851-time-to-hedge-5-stocks-to-sell-short

TSA Pimp Going Behind The Great Steel Gates?

Pretty interesting to see a TSA manager who should be busy making people take their shoes off at the airport alegedly running a pretty big prositution ring out of a Maryland hotel. I thought the TSA was just there to grope people, check the X ray machine, and generally act nice to you even though sometimes they make you wait in line forever for no particular reason. Look, I’m ok with all of that stuff because I respect 911 and the need for safety from hijackers, but I will be a little upset if the regular pimp off the street goes to jail and this guy gets off because he is TSA! He does claim he is innocent, however, and believe it or not we are all innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.

From Fox News…

A manager at the Transportation Security Administration at Dulles airport has been arrested for allegedly running a prostitution ring out of a Maryland hotel.

According to court documents, the agency had received a complaint of “very similar” activities back in 2009.

Bryant Jermaine Livingston, 39, was arrested while on the job as a supervisor of TSA agents at Dulles International Airport. The Manassas, Virginia resident, said by phone he is innocent of the charges, but declined to discuss the details of the case.

According to charging documents, on February 15th, Livingston used cash to rent a room at the Crowne Plaza Hotel on Georgia Ave. in Silver Spring, Md. The hotel manager recognized Livingston as a previous customer who, on earlier occasions had “groups of males and females frequently entering and exiting Livingston’s room,” according to a court document.

Similar activity was happening on February 15, so the manager called Montgomery County Police to report likely prostitution. Responding officers offered to accompany the manager as she went to evict the people from the room.

At the doorway, Livingston denied prostitution was occurring, and invited the manager and police into the room.

Responding officers say they saw, “11 people inside the room [including] three naked females and four males attempting to get dressed. Multiple people were laying on the two beds and other people were sitting in chairs and standing in the room.”

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/03/29/dulles-airport-tsa-manager-accused-running-prostitution-ring/?test=latestnews#ixzz1qWv4rVKd

 

 

Hedgephone Says: “HEDGE”

       The time is here to lock in gains and hedge your portfolio risks. Even though this rally could still have a few percentage points left to run, we think the time is right to take much of your equity long exposure off of the table and to wait for a meaningful correction in equities. While “timing” the market is difficult, valuing the market based on CAPE or the Shiller PE ratio makes a good deal of sense. Right now, profit margins are higher than they have been in thirty years and profit margins are generally mean reverting. Granted, the rise of the internet has become a source of higher margin revenue for companies but the general theory of mean reversion when it relates to profit margins is pretty sound.

All in all, only the most risk hungry speculator should own stocks here unhedged after a 15% or so rise in the Nasdaq 100 so far this year. We think that the market is poised to repeat last year’s timultuos summer of discontent and are looking to short some things here including but not limited to Salesforce.com (CRM), QQQ, Amazon.com (AMZN), LinkedIn (LNKD), Dunkin (DNKN), IWM, MDY, etc…

On the long ledger, consider holding GOOG calls as a hedge against your other internet stocks as well as Dow calls for a “long hedge” against your net short position or fully hedged position in stocks. While it is okay to own some stocks forever, we think that the stock market is at least 35% overvalued at current prices and that it is certainly time to sell stocks hand over fist.

Buy low and sell high is the fundamental tenet of becoming a good stock market investor. Right now the market is too high for us to be anything besides extremely cautious when it comes to equities. That said, some investors with a long term view should simply add on the way down or remain invested in dividend paying stocks. Warren Buffett now gets his original investment in Coca Cola back every single year thanks to KO dividends.

We Are Happy To Have Gotten A Few Ideas Right In 2011

Some of our biggest stories and best trades last year include:

Telling people to short/sell SIGA at $14

Telling people to short/sell OPEN at $110

Telling people to short/sell NFLX at $300

Telling people to short/sell TZOO at $100

Here is our recommedation to buy GOOG and AAPL last April!

Published April 25, 20011 at Seekingalpha.com:

Sometimes, a high growth stock becomes priced for perfection and beyond. Other times, a fast growing company ends up trading at an undervalued price relative to future cash flows and growth prospects. The following seven companies have grown at an incredible pace over the past ten years, but as earnings growth has slowed given the sheer size of these businesses or changes in the technology that drives their industries, so has the rise in price in each of the following names. Investors wishing to place small “starter” positions in these stocks should consider selling leap put options instead of purchasing the shares directly as a way to buy them at cheaper prices while earning a nice rate of return per unit of risk while you wait. Selling put options is an interesting way to “get long” a given stock.

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AAPL — Apple shares recently got a small bounce after the company released earnings for the most recent quarter that were well ahead of the street at $6.40 per share. Apple shares are now trading at a trailing twelve month PE ratio of 16.7X with a forward multiple of 12.4X earnings. Apple is riding high on the trend toward digitization in the handheld device, music, book and social networking spaces as well as the incredible rise of the internet as a tool for recreation and commerce. Apple shares sell for a PEG ratio (price to earnings-to growth) of only .70X, which would qualify them as a cheap growth stock, or “Garp” investment — ie. Growth at a Reasonable Price so long as the growth is sustainable and can continue for several more years (which is questionable to be certain).

Apple investors could either sell a January 2012 $350 put option or could buy a January 2012 $300 call option and sell front month $350 calls as a hedge (a safer way to play this stock in my view). Apple saw YOY quarterly earnings and revenue growth both exceed 70% — clearly it is getting it right as a company and this stock may be the cheapest relative to historical growth on this list. With that said, at a market cap of well over $300 Billion, investors have to wonder just how much room a company this big has to grow in the future and if the stock represents value, or the top of some sort of consumer gadget bubble. Interestingly enough, Apple found a way to crush Amazon (AMZN) and Barnes and Noble (BKS) with its IPAD Tablet computer, as E Books are now easily read over the Apple device whose technology appears to be much more advanced than its rivals. One thing is certain, Apple is one of the best managed businesses on Earth.

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GOOG — Google shares are starting to look cheap after the recent sell off, with shares trading for 19X trailing earnings and for 13.2X forward earnings. GOOG shares fetch a reasonable 11X EV/EBITDA multiple and revenue growth YOY stood at 26% in the past quarter. Google’s search market share continues to grow and the company has a strong opportunity to grow in China provided President Hu allows this eventually, and the company has a good chance to gain significant market share in the greater developing world. Google has a reasonable leverage ratio with nearly four times as much equity as liabilities and the company is generating strong cash flows from operating activities, which should amount to roughly 10% of the company’s market cap fairly soon if the business continues to grow at a 20% or so rate.

Read More Here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/265223-7-high-growth-stocks-becoming-deep-value-buys

OP ED: Why Republican War Mongering Is Idiotic

       Republicans just can’t stop talking smack to “our enemies” whether it’s bashing Iran, slamming Russia, provoking North Korea, or talking smack about Pakistan. Sure, these nations are a huge problem for us in terms of foreign policy on many levels, but to go out and make public threats is simply dumb.

What these idiotic statements reveal is that all of the Republican candidates need to brush up on a little book by Sun Tzu called “The Art of War.” Maybe it’s that the Republican candidates aren’t well read enough to have covered this book or the chapter on the most important factor in combat besides seeing victory happen before the battle is begun — the element of surprise!

Gone is the element of surprise for people like Ricky Santorum and Newt Gingrich if they were to win office… Iran would know that days after the inauguration Ricky and company will be dropping some pretty serious bombs on their country.

“Talking tough” to our enemies is not the opposite of appeasement it is the embodiment of idiocy in my view because it places our nation on hostile footing with rogue states, dictatorships, and fascist regimes around the globe. We don’t want to strike last if we have to go to war and we don’t need to pre-empt anything — Medvedev is actually correct in asking Romney to use ration and was wise in stating that this is not the mid 1970′s anymore.

What was most distressing to me this evening regarding the Obama open mike, was the fact that both candidates for Presidency looked pretty silly while the only person talking any sense was none other than Russian President Medvedev!

Someone should tell these Republican leaders that it is okay to use a “soft sell” technique with regards to diplomacy. No one likes to be talked at, and while the world is filled with horrible dictators and murderous leaders there is nothing to gain by making threats or spouting hate speech! To me, when it comes to foreign policy the President should first and foremost desire peace.

While many U.S. citizens think that Obama should not practice “appeasement” I have to cordially disagree and say that while he should get our troops out of combat right away, he is certainly not acting in peacetime — leaders should be careful not to pre-empt the enemy in warfare unless they are using this as a surprise/Trojan Horse tactic in battle. What worries me is that so many Americans are willing to go along with policies that call for more battles. This idea is fiscally, morally, and socially untenable.

By spewing war threats to foreign nations, the Republicans have doomed themselves to failure in 2012 in my view. While Obama has irked me with overspending, not bringing our troops home as promised, and essentially handing the economy over to Wall Street he is a far better actor diplomatically than Santorum or Romney. While I am still a big Ron Paul fan and supporter, I empathize with Obama’s focus on education, environmental stewardship, focus on the working man and minorities, etc…

Look, neither party right now is offering what I want which is a political system that is Libertarian yet compassionate, fiscally conservative yet flexible, socially liberal yet financially responsible, and most of all educated when it comes to economics and particularly when it comes to business management.

Each of these candidates posses one or two things I like and one or two things I dislike. In the end, I unfortunately have to side with Obama because I strongly feel that this nation cannot afford any more wars.

All of the major nations around the globe already have nuclear arms. Our job as a sovereign Democracy and world leader is to praise peace and liberty. We should denounce fascism, corporatism, unchecked monopolies, top down despotism, genocide, ignorance, arms races, citizen spies, wire tapping, censorship, warfare, and economic totalitarianism.

The U.S. is so special because we are a nation of compassionate blacksmiths hammering away at injustice to form a nation that lives by the ideals and values of our fathers and forefathers. It is the legacy of freedom, the promise of Democracy, the instincts of compassion, the call to responsibility, and the will to live by the dreams of our founders that make this nation a great place to live.

Unfortunately, the unchecked fraud and greed of the financial barrons has left this nation with little meat on its bones. The policies of Obama have not been any different economically than the policies of Bush: more spending, more money printing, and higher commodity inflation. At $7.50 an hour, Americans simply cannot afford to put food on the table for themselves and their children anymore. The “stimulus” and the “accommodation” used by our central bank is obviously making the situation worse for low income Americans and not better. To think that our nation would consider lowering corporate tax rates before considering lowering taxes on rent, fuel, or food is simply abhorrent.

In the end, we will be left with Obama vs. Romney it seems (I would have voted for Ron Paul even though I think he is wrong on many social issues) and the choice is easy. Romney has to completely change direction on spending (he needs to keep taxes high on corporations and the rich) and renounce his war mongering hate speech to win.

Then again, what do you tell a guy who thinks corporations are people and that Iran needs to be glass parking lotted along with Russia? Obama does have an election to win and Romney should have focused on Obama’s mis-steps not using this as an opportunity to spout war propoganda. In the end, both candidates look pretty bad right now and it’s a shame we can’t resurrect the Ron Paul fever that existed just a few months back in the Republican party. He seems the “realist” out of all the lot…

Schumer Trying to Use Trayvon to Take Away Gun Rights

From Kurt Nimmo, Infowars.com

Notorious gun-grabber Sen. Charles Schumer is exploiting the publicity surrounding the Trayvon Martin case to call for the feds to outlaw “Stand Your Ground” self-defense laws around the country. Schumer is an influential Democrat who serves on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Schumer wants to the Justice Department to expand an investigation into the controversial law. More than thirty states have some form of the Castle Doctrine or the Stand Your Ground law on the books. The Castle Doctrine has its roots in English common law under the dictum that “an Englishman’s home is his castle” and the belief that deadly force may be used when a home is invaded.

“I am sending a letter to the Justice Department to ask them to expand their investigation into the general application of these ‘stand your ground’ laws, whether they actually increase, rather than decrease, violence, and whether they actually prevent law enforcement from prosecuting cases where a real crime has been committed,” Schumer said on Monday.

“Given your duty to protect the public, your unique nationwide jurisdiction to conduct an investigation, and your authority to allocate federal resources to state and local law enforcement, I believe that you are warranted and justified in conducting an investigation as to whether these ‘stand your ground laws’ are contributing to excessive uses of force and decreased prosecutions for killings throughout the United States.  I therefore urge you to commence such an investigation at the earliest possible instance,” Schumer added.

Along with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Representative Carolyn McCarthy, Charles Schumer is at the forefront of an effort to roll back the Second Amendment and deny citizens the right to defend themselves. He has attempted to enforce gun laws by linking the exercise of the Second Amendment to terrorism and has pushed consistently for outlawing “assault weapons.” Schumer has also worked to close down the so-called “Gun Show Loophole” that allows sales of firearms without asking permission from the Attorney General and the federal government.

Florida, where Martin was killed after he allegedly attacked Neighborhood Watch captain George Zimmerman, has refused to shut down its Stand Your Ground law. Gov. Rick Scott has remained mostly silent on the matter and the Florida Legislature’s Senate President Mike Haridopolous rejected the formation of a special committee to review the law.

Read More: www.infowars.com

Euro Crisis Not Over

By Tiffany HsuMarch 27, 2012, 9:41 a.m.
Keeping the Eurozone financially stable amid “daunting” challenges will require a bailout fund of at least 1 trillion euros, or $1.3 trillion — “the mother of all firewalls” — the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said the 17-country bloc that uses the euro is “not out of the woods” despite signs of steadiness in the financial markets and the smooth restructuring of the Greek debt.Speaking in advance of a scheduled Friday meeting of European finance ministers in Copenhagen, Gurria said the currency collaborative needs a “credible” rescue fund at the ready in order to ensure market confidence and a full recovery in the struggling region.

The current $664-billion commitments to the buffer funds won’t do the trick, he said while revealing two economic surveys in Brussels. Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, stood beside him.

Read More Here: http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-oecd-firewall-20120327,0,7091721.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fmostviewed+%28L.A.+Times+-+Most+Viewed+Stories%29

Booming Gun Sales a Boost to Ruger/Smith and Wesson

The gun industry completely avoided the 2008 economic downturn, and gun sales have actually increased in dramatic fashion during the years since 2007.

FBI stats show the number of background checks done on Black Friday three years ago pales in comparison with the number done [on Black Friday 2011] – a 32-percent jump.

While many differing views exist regarding firearms, the momentum behind the gun buying persists.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation said that 920,840 checks were made in January alone, a gain of 17.3% over the same month in 2011. That made it the 20th consecutive month of increases.

Fear sells, and the following two companies know how to capitalize on this unfortunate trend.

In fact, since 2008:

  • Winchester’s sales of ammunition have gone from $431.7 million to $572 million, an increase of 33%
  • Federal excise taxes collected on the sale of new firearms and ammunition has risen 48.3%

Read more here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/461031-2-stocks-taking-booming-gun-sales-to-the-bank

Hussman: Beware Profit Margin Mean Reversion

John Hussman has a good note out this morning detailing his perspective on corporate profits and margins in particular. He cites the fact that margins are notoriously cyclical and mean reverting and that declining margins mean deterioration in profits. With margins are record wides we certainly shouldn’t expect corporate profits to remain as robust as they’ve been. He details his outlook:

The following chart may help to bridge that gulf. Essentially, analysts who view stocks as “cheap” here are invariably basing that conclusion on current and year-ahead forecasts for earnings. In contrast, analysts who view stocks as richly valued are typically those who view stocks as a claim not on this years’ or next years’ earnings, but instead are a claim on a long-term stream of deliverable cash flows. Simply put, there is presently a massive difference between short-horizon earnings measures and longer-term, normalized earnings measures.

What’s going on here is that profit margins have never been wider in history. But profit margins are also highly cyclical over time. The wide margins at present are partly the result of deficit spending amounting to more than 8% of GDP – where government transfer payments are still holding up nearly 20% of total consumer spending, and partly the result of foreign labor outsourcing (directly, and also indirectly through imported intermediate goods) which has held down wage and salary payouts. Indeed, the ratio of corporate profits to GDP is now close to 70% above its long-term norm.

Read More Here:http://seekingalpha.com/article/458491-hussman-beware-profit-margin-mean-reversion

Tons O Guns

ROCKLIN (CBS13) — If you’ve pulled the trigger on a new firearm this holiday season, join the club.

As in your neighborhood shooting club, because faster than a speeding bullet, guns are going out the door.

Well, not right away, of course — there is that 10-day waiting period, 11 here at TDS Guns in Rocklin, where Bob Norgard wasn’t caught off-guard.

He’s making his purchase today so he’ll have his firearm under the Christmas tree as he joins a growing number of people who say they’re simply “doing what they need to do to protect themselves and their family.”

This surge in gun sales — the best holiday sales season in three years, according to the Firearms Dealers Association — got a shot in the arm on Black Friday.

“Black Friday sales were off the charts this year,” a TDS employee said.

FBI stats show the number of background checks done on Black Friday three years ago pales in comparison to the number done this year — a 32-percent jump.

Read More Here: http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2011/12/13/firearm-sales-way-up-during-holiday-season/