Archive for April 30, 2012

US Road Closures and Agenda 21

“Montezuma County Sheriff Dennis Spruell is waiting for his conscience to tell him: Should he start handing out tickets this week to U.S. Forest Service agents who are closing backcountry roads? Should he cut locks on gates that shut off access to public lands?

The fact that a county sheriff is considering such actions against the federal government is a good indication that more than a run-of-the-mill dustup over road and trail closures on public lands is erupting in the far southwest corner of the state…

In recent weeks, protesters have marched on the local Forest Service and BLM office located between Cortez and Dolores, calling Forest Service officials “government pukes.”

OREGON – (3/2/11, by Sara Foster, NewsWithViews.com) Josephine County, Oregon -When Gil Gilbertson was sworn in as Sheriff of Josephine County, a rural county in southwest Oregon, in 2007, he had 30 years of law enforcement experience behind him, both in the UnitedStates and with various military missions overseas.

So when citizens of the county began coming to him complaining of “harassment” by U.S. Forest Service law enforcement officers (LEO), he said he’d investigate their concerns, figuring he could work things out with the local ranger district. After all, as the county’s chief law enforcement officer he was in the “club” and moreover had gotten along with the “feds” — though he disagreed with their road closing policies and other efforts to keep the public off public lands which cover 68 percent of the rural county.

He contacted the local ranger district for information, but instead of answers he was bluntly told that No, they couldn’t, wouldn’t discuss anything about any complaints with him, but he could file a FOIA (Freedom of Information Act)… Gilbertson sent a blistering letter to the District Ranger of the Wild Rivers Ranger District in Caves Junction…‘As the CLEO [chief law enforcement officer] of this county, elected by the citizens, saddled with the expectation and responsibility to safeguard their rights, I fully intend to uphold the laws against any threat, inappropriate or unlawful actions against them…”.

UTAH – (10/6/10, San Juan Record) “Hunters in San Juan County face a number of roads that have been closed on National Forests. ‘We have been hunting this area since my dad was a kid,’ said one Blanding resident, who asked that his name not be used. ‘It seems like they have closed a thousand roads’.”

MONTANA – ( 8/26/10, Helenair.com) The Helena National Forest Service has truly been busy this summer. They have had excavators up in the forests removing roads and portions of roads for the sole purpose of making them impossible to navigate. These are not maintained Forest Service roads, yet the excuse they used was to save money in the long run by taking these roads off of their maintenance list.  The sole reason for these road closures is to prevent sportsmen from accessing hunting grounds.”

IDAHO – (6/16/11, Capitalpress.com) “A county government in Idaho has filed a legal complaint against the U.S. Forest Service over road closures that allegedly limit residents’ mobility and discourage tourists.  Valley County has asked a federal judge to declare the agency’s travel management plan for the Payette National Forest as unlawful due to violations of environmental and administrative law.

“They didn’t do it right,” said Matthew Williams, the county’s attorney.“No appeals, no hearings. They just did it.”

The road closures by the Forest Service have also been happening in California, Nevada and other states.

Former Sheriff Richard Mack, in his book “County Sheriff: America’s Last Hope” summed it up when he said “The founders of America warned us that we would lose more freedoms from gradual encroachments by those in authority than by sudden usurptions from any foreign enemy…The COUNTY SHERIFF is our nation’s LAST LINE OF DEFENSE, for the preservation and return to, fundamental and individual liberty.”

The USDA (a member of the new Rural Council and the IUCN, an organization that promotes U.N.’s Agenda 21) used your tax dollars to send David Ferrell, Director of Law Enforcement and Investigationsto Canada for the 9th Conference of the International Network for Environ­mental Compliance and Enforcement (INECE) where “… environmental compliance and en­forcement experts from over 50 coun­tries gathered to identify new actions to promote enforcementcooperation to…support the shift to sustainable devel­opment…”

On INECE’s website, it states: Agenda 21: An international mandate for building compliance and enforcement capacity as an essential element of environmental management… Agenda 21, Chapter 8, Section 8.21. Each country should develop integrated strategies to maximize compliance with its laws and regulations relating to sustainable development. Does this seem like the Forest Service might “promote enforcement” to make U.S. citizens comply with Agenda 21?  It’s important to know what the USDA is “participating” in:

“INECE is striving for a global network which starts first at local levels, networking among key institutions of government, the police, environment agencies, sectoral agencies; second among local groups and with related regional and national groups within nations; third, between governments and NGOs; fourth internationally in bilateral cooperation; fifth regionally among nations among all relevant groups; and finally, sixth, on a global scale among the various groups as needs arise and catalyzing ideas and approaches and cooperation around the globe.

The mandate for environmental compliance and enforcement was introduced as a direct result of the consensus at the International Workshop which gave the participants the confidence to move toward this very important international statement. Language in Agenda 21 empowered UN organizations to more actively support compliance and enforcement institution building activities.”

Regarding any mandate for USDA “enforcements” to close off roads, forests and public lands, remember the Tenth Amendment “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

Sheriff Mack sums this up best “…local officials have the right, the power, and the duty to stand against the far reaching incursions by our own Federal Government.”  Mack cited a Supreme Court case in which Justice Scalia wrote a ruling for the majority that stated“The Federal Government may not compel the states to enact or enforce a federal regulatory program.”

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Our Latest SeekingAlpha Article: 3 Inexpensive Stocks to Research

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In fact, Seaboard has managed to more than double its cash flows from operating activities over the past three years. Many analysts have questioned this growth rate, but the fact remains that the company is one of the best managed conglomerate businesses in the world. With any commodity business, however, one must view the cyclical nature of the industry with a good deal of skepticism and certainly shipping is thought to be cheap for a good reason right now.

Investors in Genco Shipping GNK and Excel Maritime EXM know exactly what I am talking about. Unlike the dry bulk shippers, Seaboard has a more diversified business model which can even out the volatility during the hard times. Renaissance Technologies and Kahn Brothers & Company are two of the larger names invested here, but I expect the hedge fund community to take notice if earnings and cash flow remain on a positive trajectory.

Read More Here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/539291-3-inexpensive-stocks-that-hedge-funds-are-buying

Why Scamazon is Now a Short

I haven’t covered old scamazon for some time now, but given the BS pump to the 226 level I think it’s time to bet against this high flying fraud. Amazon is a real company with manufactured and massaged numbers. I view the stock as a $50 name tops… The street just loves this type of manipulation because it keeps their other scams afloat. What a scam.

In any event, consider selling a bear call spread (selling a $230 call and buying a $260 call or just go short with a stop loss at $230 and re-evaluate if you get stopped out…

As Usual, Expect Gaps To Be Filled

In this case it is the huge gap up post Apple/nanke that shot the stock market from off of the ropes and back into near all time high territory. While I am net long because a snickers bar went for a nickel 50 years ago, I also recognize that gaps get filled and that the market has come pretty far pretty fast. In other words, I am not going to invest blindly all of my energy into being long equities here as I think it’s almost a sucker’s bet… You basically have an overvalued market with decent growth prospects which makes it like having a gut shot straight draw and a flush draw but you’re only getting 1.2 to 1 on your money.

While technically, you normally make the all in call in this situation because of pot odds, with the stock market there is always momentum and seasonality to think about. In poker, you just hope you aren’t being cheated by the room or other players.

Basically, the stock market is back up to where it was in 2007 and this means that investors will either want to pull their money out and buy things like real estate, jewelry, fine art, etc… or they will stay long stocks. IF the ultra rich remains long and we end up making new all time highs in the S&P and Dow, I wouldn’t even consider shorting the index funds or even individual stocks. To me, the short side is the hugely expensive web 2.0 stocks — I only want to be short these if the overall market is going down. If it is flat or going up, I want to be on the sidelines (as I am now) and not invested in much of anything. That being said, I do think timberland, commercial real estate, rental property, raw land, etc… make a ton of sense right now because the market for these investments is down considerably still from their all time highs. In some cases, real estate values are stil 70% below their highs in 2006. What this means to value investors is that stocks aren’t the only asset class that matters. In fact, I would argue that investing outside of the stock market could yield much better returns than investing in stocks. Even Buffett seems to think real estate is down enough to start making some sense. True, demographic trends in the U.S. aren’t as favorable to real estate values as they used to be, however the population should still continue to rise in aggregate over time which means that supply and demand will eventually put a (much needed) tailwind behind the housing market.

In conclusion, the gap higher will eventually be filled. That’s why they say “gaps get filled” because they almost always get filled over time. So, for my money, I am not very interested in equities when compared to owning a private business or a group of them. There aren’t too many companies one would want to buy at 16X earnings when one can find private companies for sale at half of that multiple.

Everyone’s Bullish

My neignbor, his mom

my trainer

he’s long and my friend

at the cafe

has 100% winning stock picks to give you

and the latest app of the day

I search for gold along the appian way

lost in fields bronze and long are the days

when fortune is blind and replacing your time

the clock on the tower ticking away all of your power

But not if your long because Bernanke has come

to save the weak via a trickle down from the strong

the internet craze has reached its critical phase

the creshendo maze of the internet age

That critical mass more faithfully believed in than Catholic Mass

when speech is mostly still free

and those wannabee’s can still dream and hit the top with their scheme

without an actual business to speak of…

A gambling addiction

a red and green haze

the tape is your stopwatch

the Fed is your friend

the longer you hold

the more money from Ben

But if there is a major scam brewing

best to hedge now before it’s too late

to avoid the screwing

that happens when all shams end

before the bald spot and the melinoma

they have to drive Rolls Royce or face that

nightmarish coma

that is summer living on 20K in a $500 per month apartment in Arizona

When I look back those were my best days regardless

which is why the ponzi fraudsters shouldn’t be so heartless

So watch the 50 day and watch Uncle Ben

Because if this Humpty Dumpty bubble

falls down this time

There may not be enough snake oil found

to put these scams back together again

Writing this post from the road

Keroac style from I 40… we figyred apple and bernanke could pull the “market back above the all important fifty day moving average which is basically a bright blue line that almost every fund manager worships like they are third graders in the nineties and the fifty day was a cheat code for the Legend of Zelda. (sorry re the flashback)

One wonders when traders will figure out that without qe the bubble in equities will pop. That said this is an election year and these days the stock ides who runs the show on main street.

Mind the Gap

Why am I getting all London Town on you?

I’m minding the gap because Monday’s gap down was predictably filled today as promised by the chart. Next we have to wait for Apple and Bernanke… Without these two wildcards this chart is a sure bet from the short side because we still sit below the 50 day moving average.

I think there could be some whipsaw action so I went all cash for now for our discretionary account. I will watch the bullets fly and sort it out afterwords — too much risk either way as the short side is likely getting crowded, the RSI is getting more oversold, and the news will be driving the tape. So for me, I’m out for now… For the model, Hedgephone.com is bearish equities here as we have been for a month or two. We always suggest stopping out of losing trades and moving back into the trade when the tape is favorable to your side of the action. Right now, the short side looks OK but you have to watch the 50 day, Apple, and Unlce Ben. For now, below the 50 day the momentum is actually solidly on the side of the mighty bear. Watch out because this could get ugly…

Is Tim Geithner (AKA The Jeethner) Really Leaving?

I know most people could care less and many people are really happy about Geithner getting the proverbial axe. What are the odds he actually leaves? Well, according to Geithner himself he is a goner and according to some recently leaked comments surrounding Dartmouth, he may be out looking for a job! Back to school eh Dr. Jeethner?

Tim Geithner could be heading back to school, so to speak-at least if his chatty father-in-law is to be believed.

If Geithner, as expected, steps down from his post as Treasury secretary at the end of President Obama’s term this year, he may be headed back to his alma mater, Dartmouth College, according to a report in Tuesday’s New York Post.

The item on the paper’s Page Six gossip column quotes Albert Sonnenfeld, a food critic and father of the secretary’s wife, Carole, as telling a group of “stunned” diners at Bar Boulud last week that the Geithner-to-Dartmouth move is part of a broader White House political strategy.

Obama apparently nominated Dr. Jim Yong Kim as World Bank president to clear him out of the Dartmouth presidency, which he has held for just over three years, Sonnenfeld said. That move would pave the way for Geithner, who graduated in 1983 from the Ivy League stalwart, following the footsteps of his father and paternal grandfather.

Interestingly, this isn’t the first Geithner-to-Dartmouth rumor floated.

Farmers to Drive Lamborghinis? Jim Rogers Thinks So…

Rogers explained that the price of agricultural commodities “has to go much, much higher or we are not going to have any food at any price”.

In the 1970s Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, which invested in numerous investment vehicles, including commodity futures, and experienced superior returns over 10 years, leading to his “retirement” before age 40. He is a regular commentator and columnist in various television and print media dealing with economic and world affairs.

In the interview Rogers noted that farming will once again “be one of the great areas of the world economy” because of higher commodity prices, economies of scale and improved technology.

He said that he currently has significant investments in agriculture and commodities.

“Concerns around the earth’s ability to nourish a population of 6 billion people, expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, are increasingly abundant. According to the UN’s FAO, food production will have to increase by 70% to feed the globe’s larger, more urbanised, and more affluent population, by 2050,” said Standard Bank analyst Simon Freemantle in a report last year.

“Two recent, and dramatic, global food price hikes have culminated in a substantial reconfiguration of global perceptions around food security. While efforts to control such wild fluctuations are under way (principally in the manner in which data is shared), food, and the means to produce it, is being viewed as the “new oil” of the 21st century,” Freemantle added.

How you can invest in agriculture

So how can you invest in the agricultural industry? The obvious way is to get your hands dirty and become a farmer. “The very best way is to go and become a farmer … Buy farmland and become a farmer, because then you are going to get huge paybacks,” said Rogers.

Entrepreneurs can also start companies that provide inputs and equipment – such as seed, fertiliser and machinery – to the agricultural sector.

According to Rogers there are also opportunities to open businesses such as restaurants and car dealerships in farming areas. “If you don’t want to go into the fields … open a chain of restaurants in [America’s] Midwest or in the outback of Australia, or get a Lamborghini dealership in Oklahoma or in Nebraska because farmers are going to be driving the Lamborghinis; stock brokers are going to be driving tractors.”

Read More Here:http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/farmers-are-going-to-be-driving-lamborghini%E2%80%99s-says-investor-jim-rogers/16199/

Re-Test of the 50 Day Moving Average?

Looks like the market wants to punish the technical analysts today and reward the Dippy (dippies: AKA dip buyers who view every red day as a buying opportunity regardless of the overall outlook or valuation of the stocks they purchase) who was buying like crazy yesterday. While I think these Dippies are silly I think they have a good chance of filling the gap we made in the chart yesterday. After filling the gap, investors should watch closely to what happens once we run into resistance at the 50 day moving average.

If the Dippies give up early, all bets are off — you want to be trading from the short side in our view because the market is well below the 50 day moving average even though the 200 day is still in tact. All in all, stocks could simply be correcting a bit here and could remain in an overall bull market but we view stocks as a risky asset class at current multiples. We actually prefer farmland, timberland, select undervalued equities, commodities, CD’s, foreign currencies, foreclosed real estate in beaten down areas like South Florida etc… to owning an index fund comprised of the average U.S. stock