Archive for April 24, 2012

Mind the Gap

Why am I getting all London Town on you?

I’m minding the gap because Monday’s gap down was predictably filled today as promised by the chart. Next we have to wait for Apple and Bernanke… Without these two wildcards this chart is a sure bet from the short side because we still sit below the 50 day moving average.

I think there could be some whipsaw action so I went all cash for now for our discretionary account. I will watch the bullets fly and sort it out afterwords — too much risk either way as the short side is likely getting crowded, the RSI is getting more oversold, and the news will be driving the tape. So for me, I’m out for now… For the model, Hedgephone.com is bearish equities here as we have been for a month or two. We always suggest stopping out of losing trades and moving back into the trade when the tape is favorable to your side of the action. Right now, the short side looks OK but you have to watch the 50 day, Apple, and Unlce Ben. For now, below the 50 day the momentum is actually solidly on the side of the mighty bear. Watch out because this could get ugly…

Is Tim Geithner (AKA The Jeethner) Really Leaving?

I know most people could care less and many people are really happy about Geithner getting the proverbial axe. What are the odds he actually leaves? Well, according to Geithner himself he is a goner and according to some recently leaked comments surrounding Dartmouth, he may be out looking for a job! Back to school eh Dr. Jeethner?

Tim Geithner could be heading back to school, so to speak-at least if his chatty father-in-law is to be believed.

If Geithner, as expected, steps down from his post as Treasury secretary at the end of President Obama’s term this year, he may be headed back to his alma mater, Dartmouth College, according to a report in Tuesday’s New York Post.

The item on the paper’s Page Six gossip column quotes Albert Sonnenfeld, a food critic and father of the secretary’s wife, Carole, as telling a group of “stunned” diners at Bar Boulud last week that the Geithner-to-Dartmouth move is part of a broader White House political strategy.

Obama apparently nominated Dr. Jim Yong Kim as World Bank president to clear him out of the Dartmouth presidency, which he has held for just over three years, Sonnenfeld said. That move would pave the way for Geithner, who graduated in 1983 from the Ivy League stalwart, following the footsteps of his father and paternal grandfather.

Interestingly, this isn’t the first Geithner-to-Dartmouth rumor floated.

Farmers to Drive Lamborghinis? Jim Rogers Thinks So…

Rogers explained that the price of agricultural commodities “has to go much, much higher or we are not going to have any food at any price”.

In the 1970s Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, which invested in numerous investment vehicles, including commodity futures, and experienced superior returns over 10 years, leading to his “retirement” before age 40. He is a regular commentator and columnist in various television and print media dealing with economic and world affairs.

In the interview Rogers noted that farming will once again “be one of the great areas of the world economy” because of higher commodity prices, economies of scale and improved technology.

He said that he currently has significant investments in agriculture and commodities.

“Concerns around the earth’s ability to nourish a population of 6 billion people, expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, are increasingly abundant. According to the UN’s FAO, food production will have to increase by 70% to feed the globe’s larger, more urbanised, and more affluent population, by 2050,” said Standard Bank analyst Simon Freemantle in a report last year.

“Two recent, and dramatic, global food price hikes have culminated in a substantial reconfiguration of global perceptions around food security. While efforts to control such wild fluctuations are under way (principally in the manner in which data is shared), food, and the means to produce it, is being viewed as the “new oil” of the 21st century,” Freemantle added.

How you can invest in agriculture

So how can you invest in the agricultural industry? The obvious way is to get your hands dirty and become a farmer. “The very best way is to go and become a farmer … Buy farmland and become a farmer, because then you are going to get huge paybacks,” said Rogers.

Entrepreneurs can also start companies that provide inputs and equipment – such as seed, fertiliser and machinery – to the agricultural sector.

According to Rogers there are also opportunities to open businesses such as restaurants and car dealerships in farming areas. “If you don’t want to go into the fields … open a chain of restaurants in [America’s] Midwest or in the outback of Australia, or get a Lamborghini dealership in Oklahoma or in Nebraska because farmers are going to be driving the Lamborghinis; stock brokers are going to be driving tractors.”

Read More Here:http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/farmers-are-going-to-be-driving-lamborghini%E2%80%99s-says-investor-jim-rogers/16199/

Re-Test of the 50 Day Moving Average?

Looks like the market wants to punish the technical analysts today and reward the Dippy (dippies: AKA dip buyers who view every red day as a buying opportunity regardless of the overall outlook or valuation of the stocks they purchase) who was buying like crazy yesterday. While I think these Dippies are silly I think they have a good chance of filling the gap we made in the chart yesterday. After filling the gap, investors should watch closely to what happens once we run into resistance at the 50 day moving average.

If the Dippies give up early, all bets are off — you want to be trading from the short side in our view because the market is well below the 50 day moving average even though the 200 day is still in tact. All in all, stocks could simply be correcting a bit here and could remain in an overall bull market but we view stocks as a risky asset class at current multiples. We actually prefer farmland, timberland, select undervalued equities, commodities, CD’s, foreign currencies, foreclosed real estate in beaten down areas like South Florida etc… to owning an index fund comprised of the average U.S. stock

Will Bernanke Hint at More Easing?

Maybe another round of twisting or a sterilized QE? I actually wouldn’t mind another boost here as I’m personally net long for the long term. That being said, QE has to be done on a proper timeline so that when it ends the stock market and economy don’t crash without the sugar high. Last summer the markets crashed not because of economic reasons as much as the ending of quantitative easing. If Bernanke delivers more stimulus expect silver and gold to make a comeback along with most of the commodity sector. Additionally, expect stocks to perform well even though the companies of these stocks are not directly benefitting from further inflationary pressures. Small businesses get squeezed out during periods of rapid inflation if wages don’t rise to match the increase in prices. We have already seen the trend of stagnant wages and rising inflation take its toll on America — already 1 in 6 families deals with hunger and for the rest of America the wages earned haven’t really gone up since the mid nineties while the cost of gasoline and food have risen some two to three hundred percent over that time frame.

In the end, I blame the Fed for the booms and busts as well as the banking sector that controls it.