Archive for June 12, 2012

Markets Keep Bouncing…

Stocks are still rallying behind optimism for continued stimulus, and maybe this optimism is warranted. Certainly, we would hope that Dr. B still has bullets left to fire because we think the great “Man-Cession” which has morphed into “The War on Women” will continue for some time. Either way, according to a news release Americans have lost some 39% of their wealth since the start of the financial arse-raping that was the “financial crisis” (read organized banking takeover/power grab of the economy).

Nevertheless, the stock market is nearing those pre-2008 levels again. We think that $1350, $1375, and $1400 are support/resistance levels for the S&P 500 at current levels. We think that these levels will hold for now, but you never know we may see continued rallies based on Bernankulus money printing and the fear of more liquidity.

Stocks Up On Oversold Bounce, Fundamental Vs. Technical Analysis, and Investment Ideas

We didn’t bottom tick it exactly, but we almost did with our market model switch to neutral… we also got lucky exiting SIVR at around $29 after buying it for around $28 or so…All in all, the bears are running scared right now because of the TA and the chart setup… We will likely see some more action at the 50 day moving average and could very well see a resumption of the bear leg down toward more reasonable price to peak earnings multiples… Until we get a break either way we are sticking with our “sidelines” call.

I saw nothing in this weeks “Just For Men Ben” minutes that excites me regarding the money printing so I cannot recommend that people speculate on a fully valued stock market even though the technical chart signals look quite promising for a continued rally as we have discussed here for some time.

Look, many of the best and brightest in the hedge fund community think technical analysis is a complete waste of time and a total joke. I think that it works because enough traders and robots think it works and their thinking makes it so… Either way we want to blend solid fundamental and technical analysis here for our readers. Look for a new series of SeekingAlpha.com articles by us in the near future as we will be returning to our desks for the rest of the sleepy summer trading session and the fireworks that this fall’s election season should bring to the stock, real estate, currency, and commodity markets.

Right now our favorite place to invest is in real estate. If you are super wealthy, consider buying a private company where management is willing to stay on board for a few years. Also, don’t buy something that is “for sale” — many times the guy trying to sell you the hardest is desperate because he knows business is slowing just around the corner and wants to find a bagholder. In other words, it’s very easy to sign up a seller who knows the end is near for their enterprise.

 

Does Doctor B Read Hedgephone Or What?

Like clockwork we had our great and stoic hero threaten the tape with more money printing and that seems to have shored things up. All the better for me, as I moved around half of my trading account (Jaguar Alpha) into Silver the other day after I wrote that I would rather be in silver than in stock for my anticipated Bernanke bounce.

I once actually received a nasty comment from an IP address listed in the home town that Dr. B. comes from in GA… That commenter called me a racist, which is not true. Thankfully, my comment box is so jammed up with spam that I had to disable comments at hedgephone regardless for the time being.

Other issues: I had a face to face with a 6 foot brown bear and had to hike out 15 miles because my car broke down — remember when making timber investments to have a solid, running work truck and also that mother nature rules in the wilderness!!!

I am working on some formatting issues with Apple — I know in Apple’s browser that Hedgephone looks strange and I’m on it!

In any event, we asked Dr. B to print it up and he delivered on Q — I do think it’s better to stop the slides before they violate the 200 day moving averages… Even though I hate it that our economy is now solely based on the stock market, that the stock market is almost completely corrupt thanks to bad INSIDERS in CORPORATE AMERICA and not bad stock brokers or traders as much as BOOK COOKERS, I do recognize that Americans have much of their net savings in the stock market and that many companies are ethically run despite the fact that the SEC is watching porn and not busting scam companies from stealing their shareholders’ money!

In any event, we hope that things turn around and that the SEC starts investigating public corporations, their corrupt board of directors and officers, and the supply chaain and middle management teams that suck these companies dry and leave shareholders flat broke. Just because laziness isn’t a crime does not mean that the SEC should stop investigating corporations which lose 90% of their shareholders’ capital!

THE INTERNET BUBBLE: So I have been arguing at Hedgephone that once Facebook went public the investment bankers would get their huge fees and would stop needing to use the media to pump up the equity bubble that is going on with web 2.0… Sure there is a ton of value in the new media space but that value is not being purchased by today’s equity investor on the Nasdaq — the money was already made by the venture capital and private equity investors… Now, all that buyers of many of these stocks are getting is an empty bag of permanent capital loss. Anyway, we were pretty spot on with our web 2.0 call but made some mistakes recommending AMZN as short versus directly shorting FraudBook (I mean Facebook!). AMZN is more overvalued, but the suckers like it better and the suckers are hard to bet against right now!

June 1st Pukefest — Dr. Bernankenstein Please Save Us…

Because the tape is starting to look downright scary. 2.5% down days are things of the past because this is a new bull market!!! Lol… remember all of the talking head shills on CNBS that said that stocks were heading to the moon? I do, and it’s always a good excersize to study the cold hard reality of just how awefull the investment “community” is at actually performing their day to day jobs, but I digress…

The Bernankenstein Pump is finally getting dumped and the ponzi-tape painting-manipulation game that went on daily for the past few years (remember all of those QE days where ALL of the banks made money every single day?) is finally ending and ending badly…

Just when you thought things would turn around (even I sort of did or at least considered it a possibility) the market takes another nosedive because the Fed is no where to be found.

In another 10%, Ben better start printing and printing fast or we are heading for the really, really big iceberg for the banking sector. Europe’s financial banking oligopoly is bigger, less organized, and lazier than even our own investment banking cheese-opoly and it’s starting to crumble in rapid fashion.

I am hoping that stocks rise, but I ended up buying some silver instead for a Bernanke put trade.