Archive for July 19, 2012

Guest Post on Gold: From Bullionvault.com

Title: Investors’ Outlook On Gold

Now is a time of tumultuous financial change all over the world. The U.S. economy is still attempting to rebound from a lengthy recession and finally showing slight signs of improvement, and the European economy is largely in disarray, with very negative forecasts for the near future. These sorts of conditions have all sorts of investors scrambling for worthwhile opportunities, and one of the most interesting areas of focus, as far as investment opportunities go, is gold bullion www.bullionvault.com/ is something of an alternative type of investment, but in times of economic instability it is occasionally turned to as a more stable opportunity.

So, at a time at which financial systems are remarkably unstable, what are major investors saying about the gold market? As recently as February of 2012, gold looked like a very promising investment opportunity, as its price reached its highest point in several months. This had many investors convinced of a strong trend in gold prices, which had actually been predicted in initial outlooks for 2012. However, the promising, high-priced February was followed almost immediately with a sharp dip in prices in May, which has led to a more complicated outlook for gold, and a bit more uncertainty when it comes to investor opinions. It seems, in fact, that some have been scared away from gold investment for the time being, while others are looking to potentially positive signs indicative of a rebound.
…..from www.bullionvault.com/

Worth noting in any discussion on gold investment is that the price of gold tends to operate with a somewhat inverse relationship to the U.S. dollar. This means that when the dollar is weak, gold tends to be something of a financial safe haven, and the price rises. Similarly, the reverse is often true. Additionally, gold can sometimes have similar relations to the Euro, and in general is influenced mostly by the American and European economies.

With that said, the U.S. dollar has shown signs of strengthening in the first half of 2012, and this could be said to be one reason that gold has begun to look somewhat shaky. As the U.S. dollar has strengthened, the Euro has weakened considerably, and this had some investors hopeful that the gold price would remain high as people moved their finances from the Euro to gold bullion. However, it appears that the majority of people moving their assets are instead choosing to trust the dollar, leaving both the Euro and Gold in weakened positions. Again, the price of gold is very difficult to predict over time, but these sorts of trends suggest that in the near future – particularly as the U.S. economy and the dollar strengthen – gold may not be as stable as usual.

This is a guest post on behalf of Bullion Vault by freelance writer Brad Turner. Brad has written on numerous topics related to investment opportunities.

Is This a Buy Signal? Buffett’s Still Long and Strong

Warren Buffett has changed his view on the U.S. economy.

In a live CNBC interview from Sun Valley with Becky Quick of “Squawk Box,” Buffett says the general economy’s growth has “tempered down” so that it is now “more or less flat.”

He does, however, see a “noticeable” pickup for residential housing from a “very low base” that “doesn’t amount to a whole lot yet, but it’s getting better.”

For months, Buffett had been seeing general U.S. economic growth held back by a weak residential housing market.

Buffett also says things are beginning to “slip pretty fast” in Europe, especially over the past six weeks. He’s confident “they’ll get it worked out” by ten years from now, but right now there’s no obvious answer. A big part of the problem: it’s not clear who is in charge, if anyone, and Europe doesn’t have its own “printing press.”

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Buffett says he “doesn’t know” if the euro will still be a currency ten years from now. He thinks the euro zone can’t exist as “originally designed.”

Despite the slowdown, Buffett says the U.S. economy is still doing better than “virtually any other big economy” around the world.

He says that “to some extent,” he is in a wait and see pattern on where the economy will going.

Asked about the scandal surrounding interest rate manipulation by Barclay’s and other banks, Buffett called it a “big deal” and “can of worms” that “shakes your faith in certain institutions.”

He believes Barclays CEO Bob Diamond had no choice except to resign.

Hedgephone Market Model Switches to Neutral

Basically, this means we are moving from short the market to cash. The reason for the switch is technical in nature and also because we want to lock in solid 3-4% or so gains since the Model switched to short the afternoon of July 5th. We’ll take the gains and sit on the sidelines because we want our readers to appreciate solid risk adjusted gains without risking investor portfolios in the event of an unforeseen Bernankification of the U.S. stock market tape. Dr. Bernankenstein’s stock market creation lives, but it looks to me like it’s not that long for this world at current valuations. We suggest sitting this one out and enjoying a Stephen King novel instead of losing your recent earnings from the short side of the tape if and when QEXXXXXXX is announced and the market roars ahead on a falling U.S. (and all other paper currency nations) Greenback.

Why “Buy On Tuesday” Works and Why You Can Cover Your Short

Our proprietary market direction model switched to short after the July 5th rally because many of the technical indicators the system follows went into overbought territory.

Based on a few more rules we abide by at Hedgephone, we would suggest covering a portion (if not all) of your short position today, Tuesday, on weakness because of the recent pattern of markets bottoming out on Tuesdays and producing annoying “snap-back” rallies which are short-lived and based on short covering.

Much of the buy on Tuesday theory works right now because it coincides with another well known stock market theory devised by famed commodity trader W.D. Gann — “Never be short on the third day of a correction.” For whatever reason, Gann believed that the third day of any market sell off was a bad time to be short as skilled traders will be covering and going long for a rebound rally.

What really matters most to us at Hedgephone is what the FED will be doing to combat falling stock prices (their new unstated policy objective) and what traders like you can do to prepare for what is ABOUT to happen as opposed to reacting to what JUST happened in the stock market.

Because the short trade we advised entering on the 5th is now a 2.3% or so winner, wise traders may want to take the money and sit around in cash for a day or so until we get some more clarity on Europe, Bernanke, etc…

Overall, the market is a lousy place to put your money nowadays because corporate insiders, CEO’s, directors, and unions have completely corrupted the U.S. market and most of the international equity markets. Today, what you should think of is a cesspool of standing water where flies and mosquitos are hatching like crazy. Sure, you have the American Dream burning inside you and you are thirsty, but you may want to boil that standing water before you risk drinking it! Fraud by corporate insiders is so rampant that it may be worth sitting it out.

 

Stocks Getting Technically Overbought, Nearing Top of Range Model Switching to Short

We have to abide by the rules of the great and mighty HFT programmer hipsters and their love for all things technical analysis (and shunning of any mention of things luike PE ratios or price to book values!!!)…

The RSI on the S&P is around 65, the slow stochastic has moved into extreme overbought territory and stocks in general look to be at the top of the trading range. Our technically oriented market model is now in a short position here… Keep in mind any shorts should be hedged against dollar devaluation (gold, silver, commods, real estate, etc… are all OK hedges for dollar risk)…

Till next time, we would batten down YE Old hatches and prepare for stormier seas ahead, though we hope we are wrong and that the market goes higher forever (or at least 66% of the time like it says in the CFA level one manual…)

Window Dressing or Mr. Market’s Blessing?

So was last weeks whipsaw Friday some typical “Big Boy” manipulation game which conveniently occurred on the last day of the quarter or are things really that much better on Main Street and Wall Street…? I’ll let you be the judge, but the last day of the month and the first day of the new trading month are usually pretty interesting and enjoyable to watch… from the sidelines… The big action in oil and commodities also suggests that the strength in the Dollar may be waning.

Of course, anything can and will happen in markets and Hedgephone has been admittedly slacking on its duty to keep readers ahead of the tape. That said, it is summer, I am chopping wood on my spread here and frankly am not all that      intrigued by the long or short side of this market. The stock game is dominated by robots and their twenty something hipster programmers today so unless you are an HFT gobot you really have to wonder whether investing in the stock market for the long term is actually an investment rather than speculation….

We still like the KO, BRK.A, PG, MCD, PEP, SEB, COP, CVX type of stuff right now and we would stick with a dividend portfolio like this with covered calls written against the portfolio if we wanted more equity exposure….

Currently, the small Jag fund is 80% in cash (SNOOOOOOOOOOOR) and 20% in silver (hedging our cash? maybe…)

In any event, we will be updating this page more frequently… If you get super bored check out the music section for some tunes or the video page for some good old fashioned mid west conspiracy theory knowledge!

Till next time…. (We are still neutral but leaning bearish based on trading ranges)