Archive for July 12, 2012

Is This a Buy Signal? Buffett’s Still Long and Strong

Warren Buffett has changed his view on the U.S. economy.

In a live CNBC interview from Sun Valley with Becky Quick of “Squawk Box,” Buffett says the general economy’s growth has “tempered down” so that it is now “more or less flat.”

He does, however, see a “noticeable” pickup for residential housing from a “very low base” that “doesn’t amount to a whole lot yet, but it’s getting better.”

For months, Buffett had been seeing general U.S. economic growth held back by a weak residential housing market.

Buffett also says things are beginning to “slip pretty fast” in Europe, especially over the past six weeks. He’s confident “they’ll get it worked out” by ten years from now, but right now there’s no obvious answer. A big part of the problem: it’s not clear who is in charge, if anyone, and Europe doesn’t have its own “printing press.”

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Buffett says he “doesn’t know” if the euro will still be a currency ten years from now. He thinks the euro zone can’t exist as “originally designed.”

Despite the slowdown, Buffett says the U.S. economy is still doing better than “virtually any other big economy” around the world.

He says that “to some extent,” he is in a wait and see pattern on where the economy will going.

Asked about the scandal surrounding interest rate manipulation by Barclay’s and other banks, Buffett called it a “big deal” and “can of worms” that “shakes your faith in certain institutions.”

He believes Barclays CEO Bob Diamond had no choice except to resign.

Hedgephone Market Model Switches to Neutral

Basically, this means we are moving from short the market to cash. The reason for the switch is technical in nature and also because we want to lock in solid 3-4% or so gains since the Model switched to short the afternoon of July 5th. We’ll take the gains and sit on the sidelines because we want our readers to appreciate solid risk adjusted gains without risking investor portfolios in the event of an unforeseen Bernankification of the U.S. stock market tape. Dr. Bernankenstein’s stock market creation lives, but it looks to me like it’s not that long for this world at current valuations. We suggest sitting this one out and enjoying a Stephen King novel instead of losing your recent earnings from the short side of the tape if and when QEXXXXXXX is announced and the market roars ahead on a falling U.S. (and all other paper currency nations) Greenback.