Update, 5/29/2011:

I have not been updating this page enough and realize that it’s confusing to readers so my apologies…

GLD:

Gold — secular bull market, not a bubble yet… my top choices for gold funds are:

GLD: I prefer playing these funds via in the money call options

SGOL: –  My favorite play in the gold space I prefer to play with call spreads

My top mining stocks for Gold:

NEM

FCX

Silver: I am more bullish on silver then gold after the large manipulated selloff: I like:

PSLV

SIVR

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Oil seems like a good longer term bet as demand is increasing while supply of known reserves is shrinking. Many argue that we will make new finds and that the markets are manipulated — while I agree with some of these arguments, I think summer driving season along with solid technical and fundamental factors will drive Oil higher until at least the ending of QE2…

3/2011: Update: Silver and other commodities are looking failry weak short term, although longer term the entire commodity question lies with QE3… If QE3 is announced, asset prices will rise as they have over the past 9 months… If QE3 is not announced, look for a huge selloff in all markets as the economy is simply terrible right now…

Silver continues to rise in parabola like fashion, up 2-4% daily now… I must say, I am getting more interested in Gold for the simple fact of lowered volatility, but money printing and silver manipulation is very real… My only reccomendation in the Commodities Research section is to continue to buy or to hold around 30-50% of your money in commodities of some type be that futures, farmland, silver bullion, gold bullion, cattle ranches, or for the less die hard currencies are another option… Take the time to watch this informative skit courtesy of my friend from Italy Manuel Marchiodi, who is a top market forecaster & businessperson in Milan:

http://dailybail.com/home/hilarious-jpmorgan-silver-manipulation-explained.html

It appears China is finally leaving the dollar so I would be carefull in bonds and in USD… Make the move abroad with your currencies at some point, although any selling in stocks may precipitate an oversold bounce in the greenback. Stochastics on UUP are in extremely oversold territory while stock indices are extremely overbought.

In listening to more and more oil research and with the developments in the Middle East I believe oil is headed much higher… which means buy RJI or:

STO

PBT

CNQ

CVX

COP

BUY BUY BUY…… Dollar is a wrap

Silver should be watched closely under $30 — the investment community thinks stocks will go up and commodities will tank ala the 1990′s — maybe because that’s when they first started investing and believe the same thing will happen today. Personally, I think it is times like these when one should proceed cautiously — buying rallies after the first 100% gain is usually not a great trade. “It’s different this time” crowd is likely too optimistic, however a call spread approach along with a 30% net long position seems conservative here. Valuations are too high to warrant a 100% or greater long exposure in my opnion.

While I am less bullish stocks, I am extremely bullish commodities still… We are willfully heading toward hyperinflation in America… The RJI is a good vehicle for adding long term long exposure – personally in the fund and in leap calls.

Commodity rally continues as colder weather and unrest near the SUEZ canal drive oil prices and the entire commodity complex higher and higher.

The only piece of commentary I have is to go long and to hedge vs. EEM or IWM with put spreads.

Saudi Arabia opened Saturday down 6%…. Jim Rogers recommends buying Remnimbe and commodities….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR2BgrsnqZYwatch?v=YR2BgrsnqZYrogersvideo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVjaUYp_hmI&feature=channel

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Silver, Oil, Gold, and every other portable store of value boomed in today’s trading. Whether this is a legitimate bounce off of resistance for the metals and the start of a new uptrend remains to be seen, but with the M2 liquidity napalm of the financial system coming up, I would expect much higher prices in the future. Gone are the top callers and short and distorts on PM’s from the TV sets, which means its time to buy the crap out of the metals again most likely. For my part I’m in a modest 2% position in Silver, 20% in RJI, 2% gold, 1% DJP — I expect higher prices for stuff and lower value for paper going forward.

Interestingly, correllation between stocks and commodities completely broke down today — this may signal the beginning of something very very ugly for stocks and for civil unrest… The problem with a Printocracy is that eventually the poor go completely broke and starve to death — with 1/2 of the world living on less than $1 a day, a 20% food price increase via printing 20% more dollars could kill at least 400 million or so poor people in 2011 as it did in 2008 when reports of 300MM deaths came in over starvation. We will only see more unrest until our government stops protecting Wall Street and the derivatives cronies….

Until then, stay with silver and gold and RJI — buy Chinese Remnimbe and make sure to stay at a lower weighting to US stocks and dollar based assets. The cover is slowly peeling off the cover of the debt baseball folks…. When it gets peeled all the way back, I don’t think market participants will like what they see.