Tag Archive for CMG

Markets Getting Clobbered: Watch the 200 Day and 50 Day Moving Averages

Because that’s all that anyone really cares about right now. Yes, the derivatives mess, the implosion of the Euro-zone via debt, and the various other debt related issues are still quite prealent but the main thing traders with money who move the markets will be following is the 200 day moving averages… If you are looking to short some equities here, I suggest selling call options on the following stocks or index funds…

QQQ

CRM

CMG

AMZN

IWM

SPY

—————————————–

Keep in mind you want to have some “long hedges” as well…

Best Stocks to Short (Worst to Own)…

AMZN — 100X earnings??? Really???

CRM — 500X earnings????

LNKD — 600X earnings???

CMG — Mexican Food at 50X???

QQQ — Tech bubble 2.0

P — growth but at an unreasoanbe price… remember Napster?

The Time For Pairs Trading is Now…

I have been busy setting up a diamond wholesale business as I feel that hard assets will continue to outperform equities for some time to come. While I like real assets including real estate as investments versus paper investments right now, my recent endeavors have been slower to bear fruit than I would have hoped and I apologize to my readers for not updating this blog more frequently in recent weeks.

Just as in a poker game, the key to winning in the stock market is understanding that the game is going to be rigged much of the time and that prices don’t always reflect real value or any sense of tangible reality. In recent weeks the markets have melted up to a substantial degree based on the European bailout ideas that levering up the system to pay interest on previous leverage would stem the current banking crisis. In other words, the domino effect of too much debt may be slowed or stopped in the short run and that has provided investors with a substantial bid for many stocks. That said, levering up SPV’s to buy debt of countries who are in trouble because they already own too much debt creates a significant moral hazard much in the way that the US created a huge moral hazard when we bailed out our largest banking institutions back in 2008. Europe’s move to bail out insolvent banking institutions is not going to solve the root problem at hand, which is poor management of public finances which is a problem shared by almost all of the developed nations in the world at the moment.

Additionally, using public money to bail out or pay for the losses of private enterprise is considered to be hard line fascism according to most historians, economists, and business people and that’s exactly what the governments of the world have decided to do to “save” the financial system.

The problem with such a “quick fix” is that these moves are inherently unstable and the system has begun to show major cracks in the foundation a debt expansionist global economy.

What all of this means to investors is that bubbles have formed and bubbles will inevitably pop. Real estate is one asset that appears less likely to remain in a speculative bubble given the fact that prices for real assets remain low relative to the increase in the US money supply.

While a debt deflation outcome is certainly possible, I believe the consequences of such an outcome will hit things like stocks harder than tangible items like farm land, rare color diamonds, raw land, timber property, etc… because of the Keynesian tact taken by overleveraged governments around the world.

In summation, it appears to me we will have to go either into an inflationary outcome or into a depression. Because both of these scenarios are politically indefensible it is likely we will see a bit of both in the form of “Stagflation.”

What worked in the 1970′s should in all likelihood continue working today. That means commodities and real estate should continue to outpace the stock market, though when valuations become cheap enough equities will once again become attractive.

At $1000 all else being equal, I view the US stock market as cheap. At that point the Hedgephone market model will switch from cash or short to long. We still like the hard asset markets, but we respect the fact that we will see continued volatility. Nothing goes straight up forever!

Longs:

RJI

HAST

PBR

JNJ

KO

MSFT

————

Shorts

AMZN

CRM

CMG

MAKO

QQQ

 

Towards a Creepy Eurocracy?

Looks as though the nations of Europe are tossing out their sovereignty and it’s pretty sad because instead of one of them going bust now they will likely all go bust. Of course, I hope I am wrong but certainly the current proposal for a levered up hedge fund dictatorship looks pretty sketch. In any event, if I were Germany I sure as heck wouldn’t want to be joined at the hip to Greece, Belgium, Spain, or Italy… Then again, Europe is the most repressed and beaten down place around so I am sure none of the people on the street are for this latest “deal.” More tyranny crammed down the throats of the sheeple as we move to a creepy one world dictatorship run by the banking mafia? Well, I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but if you know a good one tell him to get at me!

In any event, the markets are under some stress as on the one hand managers are trying to pump up their crappy long positions and on the other hand selling to meet redemptions into the Q so you have this bizarre tape where it’s window dressing meets forced selling… In the end, I imagine that forced selling will win the day, regardless of the Eurocracy and the increasing bailouts and even the rumors of QE… Quantitative pumping, meet deflationary dumping!

All in all, we are in for a wild ride. Grab your seatbelt, your level 2 and some prescription meds because this tape is absolutely friggin NUTS!

It’s the 1990′s bubble for tech stocks (large cap only), the early 1930′s for value stocks, Japan for commodities and the Dow, Wiemar Germany for gold, 2008 for bank stocks, and 1985 for everything else.

Back to the task at hand, I feel the long gold short tech bubble trade is the best place to be…

Eat at Chipotle, shop at Amazon, use Salesfarce for you IT, just short their common stocks because they are priced for perfection and beyond!!!

3 Cramer Pumps to Short

Love him or hate him, Jim Cramer has a knack for getting behind momentum stocks and he’s often right. When he realizes he is wrong on a particular growth stock or speculation, he usually gives a mea culpa before these crash or at least admits when he is wrong as he recently did regarding Netflix (NFLX). To his credit, he did tell people to sell NFLX at around $180 or so when the stock began its rapid decent toward a more realistic valuation at today’s quote in the $120′s. Cramer, like anyone in the investment business, has gotten it wrong many times in the past (an example was his recommendation to buy NFLX at $300), but his general strategy of “buy and homework” works when combined with a growth investment strategy that sets stop orders along the way in strong bull markets. The real trick to any trend following, high beta growth investment approach is to know when to get out and move to cash.

Cramer’s enthusiasm for the markets is undeniable but he is also a student of the moves of “Dr. Copper.” The price of copper has forecasted many recessions and stock market/economic booms in the past. Cramer must be getting cautious on stocks, because copper is down some 25% from recent levels over the past two weeks. Clearly, investors who look to copper to forecast the price of equities must be getting extremely bearish right now.

Read the rest of our article here:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295760-time-to-short-these-3-high-flying-cramer-favorites

They’re Throwing Out the Babies and Not the Bathwater!

        Now that stocks are down some 20% from their highs, most investors think that stocks are a great buy and that “leading” momentum stocks in particular are the best place to invest. The only problem here is that many of the “high flyer” stocks with extremely high betas are not down enough to teach the retail investor about loss right now. The investor sentiment indicators are actually still too bullish here with bulls over 43% versus bears at around 24% even with the tremendous sell off in the averages. To me, the valuations in the high beta leaders are still too high versus the growth names that have been thrown out with the major averages.

       In other words, to me it appears that the babies are getting tossed out instead of the bathwater, and this does not bode well for the overall markets going forward. In today’s market, top line growth has become the ultimate panacea. The fact that Chipotle, Opentable, LindedIn and so forth were up on yesterday’s big down day is troubling in that it shows that speculators have not been burned hard enough to learn their lessons. Let’s look at the following high valuation stocks versus dirt cheap names that investors have thrown away:

Read the rest of this article at Seekingalpha.com verys soon: http://seekingalpha.com/author/hedgephone

Burrito Bubble Fueled With Hot Air Or White Collar Crime?

       Normally, we don’t get too excited by the ambulance chasing crowd, as usually class action suits only enrich the lawyers that instigate them. When we are short a questionable stock which is run by, well, questionable management teams we love the Lawyer set to get involved and start investigating fraud and misdeeds. The latest “scam at this valuation” favorite short of ours is Chipotle Mexican Grill. We feel that Chipotle is worth around $100 a share and that hiring illegal aliens has greatly boosted the bottom line — talk about a payroll tax holiday! The SEC, as usual, has not looked into the allegations of CMG hiring under the table “authentic” Mexicans in their restaurants, but when one cockroach appears it means that there are thousands more ready to scatter once the lights get turned on — I think Steve Ells is a good manager, but greed is a tough habit to kick. CMG has skyrocketed from $100 to $270 but some of this may be the result of some type of severe fraudulent/aggressive accounting and cost cutting via breaking the law… As my stepdad likes to say “If someone will steal for you they will steal from you.” This is one of my favorite sayings and it relates almost perfectly to the naive Cramerican CMG stockholder…… Thanks to Fuqi and Fuqi for getting their hands dirty here — I would not be suprised if much more serious crimes were uncovered!

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP, a leading New York securities firm, is investigating the Board of Directors and Officers of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (“Chipotle” or the “Company”) (NYSE:CMG – News). The investigation focuses on possible breaches of fiduciary duties by the Board of Directors and/or Officers of the Company in connection with allegations that the Company hired illegal immigrants.

Request more information now by clicking here: www.faruqilaw.com/CMG

Specifically, following an inspection during 2010 by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (“DHS”) of the work authorization documents of the Company’s restaurant employees in Minnesota, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement arm of DHS (“ICE”) issued to the Company a Notice of Suspect Documents identifying a large number of employees who, according to ICE, appeared not to be authorized to work in the U.S. The immigration probe resulted in the Company firing more than 400 hundred employees in Minnesota. The ICE’s investigation was subsequently expanded and in March, Chipotle fired at least 40 workers in Washington, D.C., after ICE collected documents for an audit in Virginia and Washington. In April 2011, the Company also received a notice from the office of the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia that it is conducting an investigation into these matters through its criminal division.

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP is a national law firm which represents investors and individuals in class action and derivative litigation. The firm is focused on providing exemplary legal services in complex litigation in the areas of securities, shareholder, antitrust and consumer litigation, through all phases of litigation. The firm has an experienced trial team which has achieved significant victories on behalf of the firm’s clients.

If you own common stock in Chipotle and wish to obtain additional information, please visit us at http://www.faruqilaw.com/CMG or contact Beth A. Keller, Esq. either via email at bkeller@faruqilaw.com or by telephone at (877) 247-4292 or (212) 983-9330.

Attorney Advertising. (C) 2011 Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP. The law firm responsible for this advertisement is Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP (www.faruqilaw.com). Prior results do not guarantee or predict a similar outcome with respect to any future matter. We welcome the opportunity to discuss your particular case. All communications will be treated in a confidential manner.

Contact:
Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP369 Lexington Avenue, 10th FloorNew York, NY 10017Attn: Beth A. Keller, Esq.bkeller@faruqilaw.comToll Free: 877-247-4292Phone: 212-983-9330