Tag Archive for CVX

Debt to GDP Ratios: What Does All of This Debt Mean?

In short, all of the developed world is awash in a never-ending sea of debt. What does all of this debt mean? Why are nations, individuals, and companies so highly leveraged? When will the great day of reckoning come for all of this debt?

There are clearly no easy answers, but a growing awareness of these issues have made many investors more aware of the safety and value of hard assets like gold, silver, farmland, and diamonds. While there is no gaurantee that hard assets will continue to rise in value, it is clear that many nations will continue to print money to pay off debt or at least the interest on their debts versus cutting expenditures.

As for the stock markets, we are seeing a clear Christmas rally but are struggling with the 200 day and 50 day MA’s — What I would do here is stay neutral until all of the moving averages are cleared to the upside at which point some traders may want to “rent” the market for a X Mas rally. Personally, I am more skeptical of the debt issues in Europe than most investors and think that risk management, a heavy cash weighting, and blue chips are the place to be…

Consider these stocks for the long run:

BRK-A

KO

JNJ

PEP

COP

CVX

STO

VALE

FCX

PBR

HES
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Also, consider selling covered call options against your long positions in these names… The added yield will compensate your conservative positioning in the marketplace.

Gap Down Now Filled, Sell all Long Positions in Stocks and Go Short Tech Stocks

You won’t hear that from CNBS… The gap from last week’s selloff is now filled and the ponzi uptick/fakeout/dead cat bounce is now over… You can try to catch the move to $1200 or you can do what I would do which is to short the QQQ or even better short AMZN, CRM, CMG, PANL, MAKO, etc… using options. Eventually these will go Netflix and implode. The question is when the banking cartel/banksters/Fed/Geethner will allow them to crash and plummet…

More to come… Also, Silver and Gold look buyable here as Gold simply retested the uptrend line which held. Stocks look bearish while commodities look tentitavely bullish so you can stay long a Rogers Raw Materials Fund, gold, silver, etc… and short stocks here for a longer term trade…

Commodity stocks look dirt cheap, especially VALE, COP, HES, NEM, PBR, CVX, STO, etc…

Overvalued Markets, Lack of QE, Flash Crashes, HFT’s Gone Mad, Too Much Margin Debt — Is Another 2008 Hitting Markets?

It appears another perfect storm is brewing in the equity markets, and until things calm down, I can’t recommend jumping back into stocks with both feet. While our picks from last week including NWLI, KCLI, ASI, KO, etc… held up quite well with some even gaining in the past week, the markets overall look too dangerous to make a short term play into an oversold market from the long side. To be sure, the market is incredibly oversold technically but the level of margin debt, the downgrade, and the many flash crashes that occurred on Thursday and Friday mean that investors should play defense first and offense second. The QQQ and IWM are still 30-50% overvalued here and while we are less net short than we were at the start of last week, we still view the market as being overvalued, risky, and filled with frauds. Many short candidates including CROX, HRBN, GMCR, PEET, DB, SPG, BXP, etc… will likely continue to sell off next week. For our part we will continue to do our best to “read the tape” and report back on what we see. In the after hours on Friday, the market sold off some .5% and that was before the downgrade news hit the wire.

Watch S&P 1186 or so for your support levels. Below that we likely have a good 10% to fall before we bottom out. The market was overvalued when Bernanke launched QE3 and the levels we saw last winter were simply outrageously overvalued. Many stocks do appear to be cheap here including COP, STO, CVX, HES, dNR, OSK, etc…. However, further downside could provide even better prices for most equities as correllations go to 1 and all stocks are sold off together regardless of earnings, cash flows, and balance sheets.

Memorial Day Mining Stock Due Diligence

So while most investment managers are out touring their Bentleys and Rolls Royces around Bevery Hills or the Hamptons right now, our team of overly-ambitious analysts are hard at work finding the most undervalued names in the hard asset space for Hedgephone.com readers and letting investors and money managers know about our top picks in the mining and hard asset space. Here are our 7 very best ideas for hard asset investing:

FCX — Freeport is dirt cheap on net assets in the ground with over 4 billion pounds of copper and gold and silver deposits that are worth more than the company’s enterprise vale. FCX is trading for less than ten times operating cash flow and for a forward PE ratio of around 9X. The stock is cheap, but we like selling the January 2012 $50 put options for an additional margin of safety

VALE — Vale is our favorite idea in the mining space at just 6X earnings. Brazil is crashing with the rest of the Brics right now, but we think the stock is oversold and offers investors solid upside potential. Like FCX, we prefer selling the $30 January 2012 put options against VALE to capture theta decay and option premium while we won’t be “put” the stock unless VALE drops significantly from current levels.

NEM — Newmont is too cheap to ignore on a Net asset value basis with gold in the ground worth significantly more than the company’s current market capitalization. We like NEM and again recommend selling January 2012 at the money puts here.

TOT — Total is dirt cheap while paying a solid dividend. Covered calls look the most interesting to us for a longer term position and we think that at 8X earnings the stock is a true bargain.

STO — Priced in Norwegian Kronors, we think STO is a cheap name at under 9X forward earnings while helping to diversify investors out of U.S. Dollar denominated assets. STO offers a rare blend of currency hedge, oil assets below intrinsic value, and a strong management team with proven assets.

COP — too cheap to ignore here with a price to operating cash flow of less than 8X… COP is truly cheap here and again we like selling the January 2012 $72.50 puts for around $6.60 for a return of roughly 10% between now and january of next year, or an approximate 1% per month return. If the stock shoots up, we are happy with our payout of 1% a month and if the stock drops we are happy to own the name at a cheaper valuation.

CVX — Chevron is another cheap oil and gas name here and again we like the idea of selling a longer dated at the money put option against the name. The stock has run a bit from our initial buy target of $100.50 but we still think the name has a long way to run given the boost in oil prices we expect from the summer driving season and the last month of QE2.

Me Thinks We Get a Strong Bounce Tomorrow: My Oversold Buys

Catch a Falling Knife? Only when that falling knife is insanely cheap…. here are the stocks I want to own/trade and buy tomorrow:

My Seeking Alpha Post today:

com/article/271948-5-undervalued-and-oversold-bounce-candidates

CVX

RIMM

INTC

MSFT

COP

JASO

LDK

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About as contrarian as you can get — MSFT is the no brainer at $24… too cheap here, and INTC is a good company as well as a cheap stock. RIMM is too hated, while the Solars can’t catch a break although the recent 20% up move in HSOL has me feeling bullish for the other stocks in the chinese solar space…

BUY BUY BUY… Bounce Time… Buy dips sell rips till QE ends… then you just have to go short the Russell….lol…

Markets Soft Today and Looking Weak

Stock markets are lower today while gold and silver trade higher, which is exactly what Hedgephone.com readers were expecting! Congrats to those who joined me in this trade which is now up 4-5% in the past few sessions… Look for this trend to continue but also look for places to take profits.

I am currently looking at FCX and VALE again today as well as some CVX as cheap plays on the commodity long side of the tape while considering shorting some of the hyped up MOMO names intraday like CRM and NFLX…

I am also looking to add to some short IWM call exposure here, but alas, it’s hard to be in every market at once…

AMZN was off $2 to $194, OPEN still under $90, IWM down a bit, QQQ off .5% as of last check…

Look for some areas of support.. I am long the in the money QQQ puts and now short some June $55 puts as a hedge…

Remember to play both offense and defense here, buying cheap names and shorting expensive names with tight stop loss orders in place. Also, look toward shorting index funds versus individual stocks here as some of the mega trends look overvalued while they keep pumping higher…

That said, there are some good opportunities on the short side in individual stocks and I will update throughout the trading day…