Tag Archive for Debt Ceiling

IS NOT Going Over the Cliff Good?

I kinda liked the idea of higher taxes and spending cuts… Call me crazy, but I want America to take some meds before it’s too late. That said, it’s all perspective and I did think the 40% capital gains rate would turn the stock market into purely a trading vehicle with really no other purpose. Now we have the debt ceiling farce coming up where they laugh about how much fake money they are spending, lol…

Hopefully, we can figure out this whole science of economics thingy before Feb.
My feeling is that the U.S. could turn around but deleveraging the balance sheet is important too.

MANY more people have gone broke betting against America than have gotten rich from it… In my view, the right place to be is cash — just think of all those pro atheletes who got robbed — if they held cash instead of paper wealth they wouldn’t all go broke. Instead they get pushed pump and dump schemes and get rich quick trades and lose it all before they turn 40.

Then again, some of the smart ones realize that it’s smarter to “pretend” to be broke when you have ex wives and what not. Now, I’m not saying being dishonest is cool, but understatement and humility are the cousins of success.

Deal or No Deal? Survey Says, No…….

3:33pm | Will Democrats get on board?
Liberal Democrats are already lining up in opposition to the compromise being worked out between President Obama and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to raise the debt limit and cut the deficit.

Progressive Caucus Chairman Rep. Raúl Grijalva (R-AZ) released a statement opposing the plan.

“This deal is a cure as bad as the disease,” he said. “I reject it, and the American people reject it. The only thing left to do now is repair the damage as soon as possible.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/live-coverage-debt-ceiling-sunday-negotiations-2011-7#ixzz1TiJM2neq

The Real Story on the Economy, the Debt Ceiling, and the Fed

So going back over much of the history of this Depression (let’s call a spade a spade here) we can see that many of the ideas we had on the economy were just not right.

We let the banks go to Vegas with trillions of derivatives contracts and when they lost big, we the tax payer covered the tab. Now we are seeing the horrific effects of this “stimulus for the rich” solution — unemployment is going up, many Americans are struggling, the debt is bigger than ever and people are freaking out about it, inflation is high for raw materials but not for finished goods, the rest of the World is catching up to us as a superpower, and people in America are generally suffering.

Meanwhile, Bernanke went on 60 minutes to discuss why we have to save the banking system or we will not have an economy but he did nothing to fix the root of the problem which was the repeal of Glass Steagall. I could get in to why derivatives are the root cause of the financial depression, but I think it’s a waste of time to rehash the obvious facts here.

What can we do to fix the problem going forward? For one, we have to address the root cause of the problem which is financial innovation and the move towards a technocratic, automated society. By reinstating Glass Steagall and taxing companies based on employment levels via either a VAT tax or a graduated income tax rate we can punish companies that automate and suck jobs out of the system and reward companies that hire human workers.

I want to see a debt ceiling hike passed, but I can’t stand to think that we will be handing the mega-corporations more money out of the pockets of the poor — which is essentially what every bailout to date has done. We need to agree to fix the financial system by throwing out Dodd Frank and simply reinstating Glass Steagall. Additionally, we need our Federal Reserve to buy Gold and Silver and not more overvalued bonds. We can’t get through this malaise by simply pumping and dumping stocks either — the stock market must be allowed to trade on fundamentals, not a devalued currency.

By devaluing our currency, all we are doing is making the situation worse for the poorest Americans. We also need to cut “Big Brother” spending on things like the military, the CIA, the NSA, surveillance, Homeland Security, FEMA, etc… That money needs to be spent creating minimum wage jobs, not cushy 100K per year G men posts. We also need salary reform across all segments of the public sector, as we can’t afford to continue the waste and red tape that we have in place today.

More and more we are heading to a system that resembles Europe, but the problem is that this type of socialistic view (and it’s socialism for the rich for the most part right now) is a failed economic policy over the longer term. I agree with Obama that taxes should be raised on the rich and think that we should go further and raise taxes on large cap corporations via a VAT tax. I also think the more we become like the “Eurocrats” the worse off our economy becomes over time. The One currency model in Europe is not working, and America has always done well by sticking to itself as much as possible as far as politics and economics are concerned. In other words, let’s stop bailing out foreign banks and foreign countries right now, because pretty soon they will all come running for a handout the way things are going.

We need to stay independent of their mess and fix our own problems at home — that goes for the multiple wars we are fighting that we can’t afford as well. Let’s end the pretend “war on terror” and focus on the politics and the economic “war on ignorance” that needs to be waged in Washington DC. Democrats who blame Tea Party people need to understand that spending is completely out of control and resembles that of fascist South American nations right now and Tea Party candidates must realize that taxes have to be raised on the ultra rich and the mega-monopolies if we are to remain solvent. The idea that we all have to get everything we want is just silly — we need to balance the books and that should be our nation’s main priority, not cutting taxes for the super wealthy. In any event, that’s my rant and my opinion and I’m sticking to it… Hopefully, we can line up all of these idiot politicians and egg them or at least get a chance to throw rotten fruit at them in the near future.

No Raise of Debt Ceiling: Good for Short Sellers, Savers, Investors, and Civil Rights?

       So, a balanced budget is good for savers and bad for the heavily indebted and the banks… To me, the default risk is not as serious as the risk of the bubble going even further into the stratosphere.

       The higher the Nasdaq goes, the more “innovation” is used to shift our economy into a fully automated online model which needs no employees to function. If the current tech bubble is modeled after a business model which is made up with one guy, a website, and a billion dollar valuation nothing could be better for the stock market than a severe bear market.

       Tech looks rediculously overpriced here, and I view a 30% correction as a boost to the US economy which last time I checked is still made up of far more ditch diggers (unemployed ones) than it is billion dollar bloggers. The disconnect between small web firms selling on the private market on Flippa.com and the valuations of a LNKD are absolutely insane.

       We need to see a 50% decline in these issues before investors should be forced into stocks again via QE3. I applaud Ron Paul and the Tea Party for holding their line here, becuase the last thing we need is more PPT and Fed manipulation of the technology bubble… Keep in mind, the QQQ is hitting major support at the 50 day moving average. Hopefully, the Tea Party sticks it to the Man here, and we get a bear market for automation, IPO banksters, and enslavement and a bull market for day laborers!

 

The Debt Ceiling Vote as a Scare Tactic — Why We Need Glass Steagall, Not More Banker Bailouts and Bubbles

       What if there is no recovery, just another bubble and the debt ceiling hike is just another way to kick the can down the road — we need real change which means fundamentally restructuring the financial industry and bringing back Glass Steagall. Additionally, the government needs to end Too Big To Fail, and start letting the free markets find natural price discovery in the equity markets which have been juiced by the largest stimulus in the history of the world at the expense of the US Dollar, savers, and small business owners. It’s time to create an economy that is not dominated by monopolistic interests.

       This year’s debt ceiling fiasco is actually a good development for the US citizen and here’s why: our government wants to devalue our way to prosperity and that’s the wrong way to go and this debate is a huge wake up call that Americans don’t want our tax dollars going to banksters and insiders anymore.

       Geithner and Bernanke are also for all intents and purposes agents of the mega-banks and the fact that we may actually get a downgrade would be very consequential to them, even though the rating agencies are little more than prostitutes for the financial engineering system in place.

       IF the AAA status is lost, the banks will have to dump paper and their clients will be stuck because they have strict AAA mandates. The problem here is that the debt of the US and the states are essentially insolvent whether or not the US Government gets downgraded or not.

       Keep in mind, Moody’s and S&P are basically full of it, and they should really not have any credibility whatsoever at this point given their track record with subprime and the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008.

1. The debt is already too high and spending needs to be cut and stopped ASAP before we head for total meltdown.
2. Keynesian economics only works when your nation is not bankrupt already
3. We need a return to hard money.
4. We need to bring back Glass Steagall, and if our debt is downgraded this would help get at the real problem with the US economy which are derivatives!
5. All of the ideas presented give more to the rich and out of the pockets of the poor.
6. Stocks need to come down as they are extremely overvalued and in a speculative bubble.
7. We need a rally in risk on trades and a bear market for risk. Savers need to be rewarded and that means tax hikes, a balanced budget, and no more debt.
8. Corporate America is far too powerful and a no vote would slap them with some reality — we need jobs not a bull market for automation.
9. Wall Street’s latest IPO tech bubble might actually pop.
10. Geithner and co. will have to stop spending on Shrimp on Treadmills.

Bevy of Bad Data, End of Easing, No Agreement on Debt Ceiling…. Markets? Flattish

Well, it’s a good thing for the bulls that last night’s debt ceiling vote came right before the usual “1st of Da Monf” program trading rally that Bespoke, myself, and others have pointed out so often… because I think if the same news came out on a Friday morning we could have seen some serious selling. The new new new economy is fantastic and I am not putting down anyone that has “evolved” into a web 2.0 guru here, it’s just that in the world of the blogosphere and google analytics there are so many ways for bloggers to “game the system” and get a better Alexa ranking. Using said ranking one can jockey for even more traffic and eyeballs and throughh the use of spam create a billion dollar enterprise. Now, don’t get me wrong, I am a blogger by day and I think there is a huge social benefit to the tech revoultion but I also realize that every bull market has corrections along the way and that “eyeballs” and traffic based stock valuations are not concurrent with private valuations of web sites on a Flippa.com for example… So why are people with TD Ameritrade accounts so rushed to purchase shares of LNKD and TZOO even though this movie reel is about 30 years old? Because there is a perception that Bernanke will not let this sector of the stock market drop… All of these program algo names do fine until they don’t… None of this is new at all, in fact, it’s the same thing that happened back in 1987 — check our Video page for a good watch on this…

In any event none of that matters… Nice to get a blurb from James Altucher this morning over at WSJ.com Blogs… I must admit the guy has been spot on on many of his calls for the past few years and I am actually rethinking my LNKD intraday short idea because of his admonition that he “couldn’t disagree more” with my take on this name… As for AMZN and NFLX, I use short calls against these for an overall market hedge, but readers should consider a bear call spread instead of my more aggressive style… In any event, I will be posting more often today and appreciate your views on my ideas…

One thing is for certain, blogging, new media, social shopping sites like www.giantnerd.com, and the trend toward online everything is a good thing for the most part — it’s just that bubbles often cause far more problems than they are worth… If you want to buy web traffic or stock in a web site, don’t pick up OPEN shares in your E trade account because it may turn out to be the next Classmates.com and trade at 8X earnings… Instead head over to Flippa.com or the other private brokers and buy a real company for a real price… I assure you that you can find many interesting concepts for far less expensive valuations than 40X sales or 1000X earnings, and the private/public disconect is what I like to play in the stock markets both long and short!

When I was in M&A advisory we used to say that companies were worth 1-1.5X sales, 3-5X EBITDA, 8-10X earnings, or book value… Now, this is for a certain industry group, but in general over the decades these multiples seem like a reasonable proxy as to what companies are worth… Overpaying just because shares are liquid on your level 2 account is still overpaying in my view!

No Pomo = No Momo????????

Monday is one of the first POMO-less days in a long time… 1.5 billion of “monetization” is not going to help put a bid in for stocks in my view as today’s 5-7 bn of printing did not help stocks catch a bid… The market is insanely overvalued folks, and a bear market is coming…

If the government retards can’t figure out the debt ceiling (and I hope they don’t as it’s bad for America to keep running up our debt to the criminal banksters) then the bear markets will ERUPT!!!!!!!