Tag Archive for gold

Guest Post on Gold: From Bullionvault.com

Title: Investors’ Outlook On Gold

Now is a time of tumultuous financial change all over the world. The U.S. economy is still attempting to rebound from a lengthy recession and finally showing slight signs of improvement, and the European economy is largely in disarray, with very negative forecasts for the near future. These sorts of conditions have all sorts of investors scrambling for worthwhile opportunities, and one of the most interesting areas of focus, as far as investment opportunities go, is gold bullion www.bullionvault.com/ is something of an alternative type of investment, but in times of economic instability it is occasionally turned to as a more stable opportunity.

So, at a time at which financial systems are remarkably unstable, what are major investors saying about the gold market? As recently as February of 2012, gold looked like a very promising investment opportunity, as its price reached its highest point in several months. This had many investors convinced of a strong trend in gold prices, which had actually been predicted in initial outlooks for 2012. However, the promising, high-priced February was followed almost immediately with a sharp dip in prices in May, which has led to a more complicated outlook for gold, and a bit more uncertainty when it comes to investor opinions. It seems, in fact, that some have been scared away from gold investment for the time being, while others are looking to potentially positive signs indicative of a rebound.
…..from www.bullionvault.com/

Worth noting in any discussion on gold investment is that the price of gold tends to operate with a somewhat inverse relationship to the U.S. dollar. This means that when the dollar is weak, gold tends to be something of a financial safe haven, and the price rises. Similarly, the reverse is often true. Additionally, gold can sometimes have similar relations to the Euro, and in general is influenced mostly by the American and European economies.

With that said, the U.S. dollar has shown signs of strengthening in the first half of 2012, and this could be said to be one reason that gold has begun to look somewhat shaky. As the U.S. dollar has strengthened, the Euro has weakened considerably, and this had some investors hopeful that the gold price would remain high as people moved their finances from the Euro to gold bullion. However, it appears that the majority of people moving their assets are instead choosing to trust the dollar, leaving both the Euro and Gold in weakened positions. Again, the price of gold is very difficult to predict over time, but these sorts of trends suggest that in the near future – particularly as the U.S. economy and the dollar strengthen – gold may not be as stable as usual.

This is a guest post on behalf of Bullion Vault by freelance writer Brad Turner. Brad has written on numerous topics related to investment opportunities.

Was This Weeks Mega-Run Up in Stocks For Real???

Reasons it was real:

1. Stocks are relatively less expensive than say bonds and possibly gold
2. Don’t fight the Fed
3. Christmas Rallies have historical precedent

Reasons it was BS:

1. This was a FED driven pump which will be dumped
2. The debt to GDP ratios are still insane and unsustainable
3. Political ineptitude and corruption are at all time highs
4. Stocks are expensive based on Shiller PE ratios
5. Too much hype surrounds the technology boom (Though it is obvious and real that their is a boom…)

The future will tell…

the markets are still below resistance so I would have to be skeptical here and overweight things like cash, gold, silver, etc…

Why Gold, Silver, and Fancy Color Diamonds as Investment Make Sense

Tuesday’s sell off, which was predicted overnight by our proprietary market model is based, in my view, on rational fears over the disintegration of the drive toward “global governance” which relies on a central bank of the world to mop up the current economic and financial crisis instead of a more straight forward debt deleveraging approach. This drive toward “fiscal integration” is also heralded by none other than the Pope himself, and what is clear is that nobody wants to talk debt jubilee/forgiveness and breaking up the TBTF banks right now except for the people who are protesting over austerity and corruption across the globe. As Don Corleone put it in the Godfather Part 3, “Finance is the gun and politics is the trigger.”

Europe’s debt issues are clearly too large to be solved by any type of bailout or ESFS 200 to 1 leverage scheme and the only real solution is to instill democracy in those debt zombie nations which should not be controlled by corporate lobbyists or banking interests but their people. In effect, the only way out of this will be some type of debt jubilee mixed with the either the dissolution of the Euro as a currency or a replacement of the current Euro scheme with a silver backed currency system and a massive right down and nationalization of investment banks. Glass Steagall must be reinstated around the globe and investment bankers should be treated like utility workers. Politicians need to be civil servants and should have to agree to work for free and also run an election based solely on civilian, not corporate, fundraising.

Many people argue that gold is too scarce to be a practical medium of exchange in a gold backed monetry system, but what is utterly clear to most people with eyes and ears is that the current FIAT money and the fractional reserve banking systems are not working anymore and need to be replaced or at least drastically overhauled.

The current leverage in the system is also too large and onerous to actually be paid back and it seems as though the balance sheets of world nations need to be cleansed via a global debt forgiveness or reset mechanism. While such a “reset button” type default scheme seems drastic, the alternative looks to be the slow destruction of the global economy which at first will involve significant deflationary pressures as the Euro crumbles followed by hyperinflation as the U.S. Dollar is devalued along with paper money in general. This trend is already well in place.

While I am clearly not advocating an overnight return to the gold standard, I am not able to turn a blind eye towards the macro-economic reality of the banking/FIAT/federal reserve system which sets a value to paper at some arbitrary price. Money needs some type of reality based valuation and by allowing private central banks to have any involvement in the creation and contraction of the money supply we will always have a degree of corruption/fascism/totalitarianism underlying the global financial system. Isn’t that what our forefathers battled tirelessy against when founding this great nation?

What all of this sovereign debt means to savers and investors is that now is the time to buy hard assets in the form of gold, silver, color diamonds, raw land, farm land, and other commodity linked investments while staying short the Nasdaq bubble names via put spreads like CRM, AMZN, LNKD, and the QQQ. Of course, such a “short innovation” and long hard currency pairs trade will have huge short term risks for investors, but over the longer term this trade has been incredibly profitable all the way back to 2001 and should continue to make money over the longer term — just take a look at a one year chart of Netflix versus the price of gold.

When looking at the debt to GDP ratios of the US (101%) it’s pretty easy to see that unless we find a way to cut spending and grow the economy we could very well end up in an economic debt driven feudalistic zombie scenario like the following nations: (% debt to GDP)

Hungary (120%)
Australia (138%)
Italy (146.6%)
Spain (179%)
Greece (182%)
Germany (185%)
Portugal (223%)
France (250%)
Norway (251%)
Austria (261%)
Sweden (282%)
Denmark (320%)
Belgium (336%)
Netherlands (376%)
Switzerland (402%)
UK (413%)
Ireland (1,380%).

As you can see, lending money to these countries looks to be about as sound of an investment as buying a share of the Brooklyn Bridge. These countries are all broke.

So where are the wise investors putting their hard earned money now? My best idea for long term capital preservation is the gold, silver, and fancy color diamond markets because hard assets cannot be printed like paper money and should continue to rise with the increasing sovereign risk in European and other nations.

Visit www.usdiamonds.net to learn more about color diamonds

Revisiting Market Direction Models for Gold, Silver, IWM, SPY, QQQ

So our model is now fully confirmed. The signals show us that we are in a full on bear market for the IWM and SPY and moving there for the QQQ. The IWM and SPY are below the 200 day moving averages. We got you into a short position in stocks on 7/7/2011 because the overall market was putting in a double top.

While I am a value investor at heart, the macro environment means that in many ways economics trumps valuation based stock picking. While many names remain significantly undervalued, the overall equity index funds are quite overvalued with the S&P 500 trading at a CAPE or PE10 or Shiller PE of over 23X… By simply buying stocks when the Shiller PE is 10X and shorting them any time it hits 22-24X — investors can effectively “time” most of the major turns in the market from 1900 to 2011. While anything can happen going forward the skew of risk to reward is clearly to the downside going forward for equity prices.

I am a patriot, and American, a passionate and compassionate human being and that’s why I started Hedgephone — to help my friends, family, and acquaintences to protect and grow their investments.

If you are too poor to invest in stocks, try to cut your spending and put what little you have into silver, or pay off your debts. Paying off debt or even declaring bankruptcy is in many cases a good idea. If you are out of a job, consider manual labor as a way to make some money in the short run — people need their lawns mowed, ditches dug, firewood chopped, etc…

All the best HP’S!!!!

Signals:
GOLD: Bullish
Equities: Bearish

4 Dollar Hedges to Own: NEM, FCX, SGOL, PSLV

With the US dollar losing its status as the World’s Reserve Currency, investors should probably be looking for ways to hedge their fiat currency risk with hard assets, foreign stocks, and hard currencies. The bailouts and “socialism for the rich” practices of western governments has placed the American dollar directly in the cross hairs of global investing trends in the name of “saving the financial system.”

Unfortunately, governments of the western world are almost unilaterally committed to debasement and devaluation of their currencies to drive exports and spur the global economy at this point, which means that investors would be wise to avoid the pending collapse of these currencies by hedging risk accordingly. As Rick Santelli puts it, “gold isn’t money, it’s better than money.”

Read the rest of this article here:http://seekingalpha.com/article/281487-4-top-hard-asset-investments-to-buy-and-hold

Futures Update: Selling in the Dollar and the KneeJerk Boost to Stocks, Gold and Silver Lower

Well, the squid or all the Presidents HFT men are bidding up stocks, sending USD to channel lows, and knocking down the metals a bit…

My feeling is to move out of gold and silver and into DBA, RJI, STO, COP, BG, MOS, POT, BG, etc……

Time to play Agriculture right now and not metals… the charts are just too parabolic at present although the bias is toward higher prices so long as silver stays above $40 — tonight looks ugly for metals bulls and stocks bears…

Move to commodities with an IWM put spread as your hedge… I will be anyways…. all the best HP’s

Futures Update: The Dollar and Stocks Tank While Gold and Silver “Nuts” are Banking, Here’s Why

       For months now, I have been warning readers of www.hedgephone.com that the end of the Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency was close at hand. While I myself have been urging people to buy gold and silver, like many other traders I have not been bullish enough on these “hard currencies.” It’s hard to predict moves in currencies and also to time the gold and silver rally perfectly, and I haven’t been bullish enough on the metals in the past, recommending a 30% allocation to the metals.

       What is finally clear to me and to most people with ears, is that something very fishy is going on at Treasury and the Federal Reserve. The onion is being peeled back right now, and lots of Americans are starting to tear up and wake up to the subversive moves happening in our economy.

       To be fair, I am not a huge fan of conspiracy theories, but I have to give credit to Alex Jones and his movement because he has been proven to be right almost every time about his theories on our government and their plans to merge our country with Europe and the rest of the world in a currency and fiscal union. The IMF SDR looks to be the endgame here, as our reckless central bankers and Treasury Czars are simply bankrupting the country at an ever increasing pace.

       So how should we invest if we have lost faith not only in the U.S. Federal Reserve Note, but also the full faith and credit of our debt and therefore our bonds?

       One thing is certain, cash is trash and so are government bonds. It’s time to get out of U.S. assets altogether — Swiss Francs, Canadian Dollars, Australian Dollars, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Commodity Futures, etc… all look to be far more secure here than “trusting” the government with an investment in USD or US Treasuries.

       Americans have to wake up and smell the ponzi — unfortunately, it may be to late to take back our economy, but it may not be too late to take back our country. We all need to wake up and vote for Ron Paul in 2012 or at least prepare for a further destruction of our Constitution by purchasing firearms and metals. I am a huge advocate of peace, and I hate to advocate heavily arming yourself to protect your family, but without loyal Constitutionalists there is simply no hope for American Sovereignty anymore in a system that is built for the Bankster by the Bankster. Our country’s independence appears to be highly threatened presently, and for that reason Americans have to learn how to protect themselves for what’s happening and not just roll over and give in to what I view as a increasing tyranny.

       Anyways, I hope very much that I am wrong, but I feel that it’s more than likely that a threat to our nation’s solvency, independence, and Constitution is very real and ever-present.

       In my view, platinum has moved up much less than gold or silver and could make a nice complimentary investment along with physical silver and gold to hedge against the planned destruction of our nation’s currency.

Silver, Gold, Oil Up Huge Today… Monday Morning Update — PM’s Look Buyable

The deficit and debt trade — IE going long gold and silver, look very strong this morning… Paper FIAT is looking weak again… I like GOLD and Silver here and I am more bullish on them than I am in stocks…

Silver up 4%

Gold up 1.5%

Oil up 1.3%

EUR/USD lower by .3%

Bonds look higher (IE risk on)

etc….

Stocks look flat here…

Buy GLD, FCX, SIVR, DBO, DBA calls here That’s my gut feel but watch closely…

I would rather buy the commodity dip than the equity rip…
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Bounce Looks Sticky, but Having Long-Short Portfolio is Advisable

The markets rallied with fierce determination today, but the gains may not hold over the longer term. The withdrawl of QE will likely put stocks under pressure. that being said, having an eqal amount of long and short positions (with a dollar for dolla long-short exposure) looks like a smart way to invest right now. Although many pundits and sell side analysts are pumping the heck out of the market, the interview given by Robert Shiller recently is really all you should focus on here — most stocks are trading for a high PE10 or CAPE price/earnings as well as a historically high Tobin’s Q…. The 13X earnings numbers being touted are based on NOL’s one time gains, profit margins that have never been higher, etc… etc…

The meltup begun with the announcement of QE2 in August will likely continue until the end of the month, but I expect the luster to wear off once QE ends.

Your levels to watch:

IWM: $80 for resistance, $78 for support

QQQ: $55 resistance, $54 support

SPY: $130 for resistance, $127 for support

All in all, I feel holding cash, covered calls, some physical silver, etc… make a lot of sense here but as we are over the 200 day we have to respect this bounce… The market is still oversold and the final pump may not end until the end of money printing….

Memorial Day Mining Stock Due Diligence

So while most investment managers are out touring their Bentleys and Rolls Royces around Bevery Hills or the Hamptons right now, our team of overly-ambitious analysts are hard at work finding the most undervalued names in the hard asset space for Hedgephone.com readers and letting investors and money managers know about our top picks in the mining and hard asset space. Here are our 7 very best ideas for hard asset investing:

FCX — Freeport is dirt cheap on net assets in the ground with over 4 billion pounds of copper and gold and silver deposits that are worth more than the company’s enterprise vale. FCX is trading for less than ten times operating cash flow and for a forward PE ratio of around 9X. The stock is cheap, but we like selling the January 2012 $50 put options for an additional margin of safety

VALE — Vale is our favorite idea in the mining space at just 6X earnings. Brazil is crashing with the rest of the Brics right now, but we think the stock is oversold and offers investors solid upside potential. Like FCX, we prefer selling the $30 January 2012 put options against VALE to capture theta decay and option premium while we won’t be “put” the stock unless VALE drops significantly from current levels.

NEM — Newmont is too cheap to ignore on a Net asset value basis with gold in the ground worth significantly more than the company’s current market capitalization. We like NEM and again recommend selling January 2012 at the money puts here.

TOT — Total is dirt cheap while paying a solid dividend. Covered calls look the most interesting to us for a longer term position and we think that at 8X earnings the stock is a true bargain.

STO — Priced in Norwegian Kronors, we think STO is a cheap name at under 9X forward earnings while helping to diversify investors out of U.S. Dollar denominated assets. STO offers a rare blend of currency hedge, oil assets below intrinsic value, and a strong management team with proven assets.

COP — too cheap to ignore here with a price to operating cash flow of less than 8X… COP is truly cheap here and again we like selling the January 2012 $72.50 puts for around $6.60 for a return of roughly 10% between now and january of next year, or an approximate 1% per month return. If the stock shoots up, we are happy with our payout of 1% a month and if the stock drops we are happy to own the name at a cheaper valuation.

CVX — Chevron is another cheap oil and gas name here and again we like the idea of selling a longer dated at the money put option against the name. The stock has run a bit from our initial buy target of $100.50 but we still think the name has a long way to run given the boost in oil prices we expect from the summer driving season and the last month of QE2.