Tag Archive for market timing

10 Reasons Today’s Gap Up Should be Sold

1. Investor bullishness is at record levels according to AAII

2. The slow stochastic indicator is at extreme overbought levels

3. The “recovery” is not happening the way the media portrays it to be…

4. GAPS get FILLED

5. Europe gets WORSE every single day

6. Earnings growth has slowed to 7% projected for 2012 (and it could be much lower!)

7. Earnings could fall in subsequent years

8. The RSI is nearing 80 on the S&P 500

9. Everyone is bullish

10. Most stocks are not cheap on a Shiller PE or price to book value basis

Market Timing Call of 7.7.2011 Still on For Now…

Don’t get confused… I am still short out the wassoo people… I don’t like stocks, but I’m always willing to look for bargains… Our July 7,2011 short signal has been in effect for 20 long days…

If you want to follow my directional model to a T, don’t read any of my posts on metals or bargain stocks just follow the model… I constantly look at both sides of any tape, and I write about it…

Many times people freak out and yell at me when I make a “bad call” but what people fail to understand is that I suck at trading individual stocks on the short side for the most part — I will always look to short the highest flying names because I’m a value guy and that’s what we value guys do for the most part….

I suggest you look at our short candidate page and note the BIG FAT disclaimer at the top — these are high beta names that SHOULD crap out in a bear market, but that doesn’t mean they will — case in point is Snotflix and Scamazon.bomb today….

I am much better at long term trend following. For now we remain in our 7/7/2011 short signal, but you have to have your allocations set to your best perception of risk tolerance — I can’t tell my 87 year old Grandma to short the IWM, it’s too confusing and that’s the game I bring to HP sometimes so I apologize as I realize many of you are more sophisticated than I am…

That said, we are in a strong sell signal here with plenty of fundamental, bottoms up, and macro reasons to be short stocks…

My metals calls are looking ugly today, but I have short calls against all of them at this point and I really am a longer term dollar bear…. Bernanke likes to print money, and I don’t like to fight him if I can help it//// He’s meaner and grumpier and better educated than I am and he also has richer and more powerful friends than I do… I mean I’m cool with a couple of cooks and waitresses at my local diner here and I like to play poker with boys once and a while but other than that I don’t have many friends to speak of…. That said, my Italian buddy Manny and I Facebooked eachother at the low in March of 2009 (he is super well educated and smarter than me) and we bottom ticked it… I remember on March 12th or something telling him that the market was too cheap at 10X earnings…. The talking heads say “it’s now cheaper than it was in March of 2009″ and to that I say BU*&*(it……..

In any event, HP remains in short sell mode, but feel free to buy dips and sell rips as you see fit…. Right now, I simply can’t see a reason to buy going into the default…. sucky politicians and all…..

Market Update: Stocks Lower

Pomo is the tail wagging the dog these days so remember that next Monday is “just” a 1.5 Billion Dollar day and that usually these smaller POMO days end with losses or flat markets. It’s very hard to make a valuation argument for many of the more speculative issues trading today that most everyone loves, and while cloud computing is huge, it is likely not enough to create another leg up in the current tech bubble in my opinion. Additionally, several more famous market timing models have turned negative so now may be a good time to either get short 1/1 against your longs or at least to play defense versus playing offense.

Real Estate: I do think that Real Estate could eventually catch a meaningfull bid and also that Gold and Silver are decent investments for the longer term right now as well as agricultural land…

All in all, a mixed bag with equities being priced for high inflation (ie as an inflation hedge) and commodities under fire from a margin hike and regulatory/political perspective.

Consider investing in Blue Chip companies before small cap value stocks: Here are 10 of the best Blue Chippers to own:

KO

PEP

MCD

BRK-B

RIMM

PM

XOM

COP

ACE

UNP