Tag Archive for MSFT

8 Dirt Cheap Stocks to Buy

Solid long-term investing should be a little more boring that it usually is for the average investor. Trying to get cute and buy dirt-cheap stocks without catalysts can often end up costing investors hard-earned money. Finding blue chip companies whose shares are beaten down and undervalued is a less exciting strategy than buying dirt-cheap asset plays with a catalyst, however sticking with the big and boring companies pays dividends over the years if you stick to your discipline and realize that the greatest bull markets usually are, well, kind of boring.

Look at gold: Its rise has been pretty meteoric, yet gold bulls still get looked at funny at investment conferences and certainly would garner little respect for their incredibly boring yet incredibly brilliant investment at the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) annual meetings. That said, a boring investment in a dull yellow metal has outperformed just about all other investment classes over the past five years.

Here are 8 dirt-cheap stocks to consider. Some of them may be too boring to diligently research for many of you, but I would counter that during today’s financial engineering armageddon, it’s far better to invest like an 80-year-old than to invest like a 20-year-old. In fact, go ahead and sell call options against your stock in these names if, like me, you think the overall markets may have a bit more downside left before finding a permanent low.

Teradyne (TER) is a cheap Magic Fomula stock that keeps getting cheaper. If metrics like a 6.60X P/E ratio, a 2.77X EV/EBITDA Ratio, an 8X forward estimate, and a 32% return on equity don’t get you out of bed early in the morning, I don’t know what will. TER lost a good deal of money a couple of years ago, but is slowly making its way back. Because of the losses in recent years, Graham would probably avoid this name at this point in time, but that doesn’t mean the shares aren’t a bargain at current levels.

SanDisk (SNDK), another Magic Formula name, has rallied a bit higher over the past few trading sessions, but shares are still relatively undervalued at current levels. Brian Pampcara at the Motley Fool did a good job of explaining that Sandisk is really in the Flash business more than anything else, and described why Flash was in a long-term bull market, because tablets like the iPad depend on Flash memory versus hard drives. With a trailing P/E ratio of just 7X, Sandisk shares appear to be a good bargain at these levels. SNDK has a forward P/E of 8.33X with a price-to-book ratio of 1.45X and an EV/EBITDA of only 4.65X.

Read the rest of this article at Seekingalpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/293182-8-statistically-underpriced-stocks-for-long-term-investors-consideration

HFT Ramjob 3000 has Been Hard at Work

The strange vertical rally of late has taken out the previous bounce highs and at this point many a wise trader is getting long the high beta stocks here. Personally, I think we should move back to the lows and really thrash some of the momentum names before we can move to eventual new highs. I don’t feel that stimulating the stock market can stimulate the economy anymore — what worked in the distant past doesn’t always work in today’s technocentric society. The world is truly “flat” in a way that it simply wasn’t when these stimulative Phillips Curve programs actually helped Americans. Spending more money is likely not going to help the economy at all because we are reaching a point where the debt of the nation alone is creating economic strife in the US. The banking problems and mortgage issues are stil incredibly pervasive but the European situation also looks extremely dangerous for the financial markets. At this point, we are sticking with cash in the model, which is up some 8% or so since we started blogging about it in early July… At this point we like a larger position in various currencies such as the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Pound, etc… The US Dollar may actually rally for a short time here, but in any event I am in risk off mode here at present for the overall markets but bullish select members of each market’s components.

QQQ Still Pricey…

All of the major indexes got creamed in August, but the QQQ still looks expensive even after the sell off… Sure, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, DELL, etc… offer interesting values here, but nevertheless the overall Nasdaq 100 Index looks overvalued.

One way to play this is to buy QQQ put options. Another is to buy QQQ puts that are slightly in the money, and sell slightly out of the money put options for a bear put spread. Another way to play this is to go long the FXC, and FXA or MSFT, INTC, etc.. via short puts and long QQQ puts.

There are many variations on hedging themes and we will try to help investors find the best path to success.

Our timing/directionall models remain in CASH right now, but we define cash a bit differently than most: We use 30% Dollars, 10% gold, 10% silver, 10% Canadian Dollars or Canadian Government bonds, 10% Australian Dollars or Australian Government Bonds, 10% Swiss Government Bonds, 20% Long and Short select under and overvalued equities etc…

We will update you on our directional models…

Until then, we are looking at

LONGS:

OSK, PBR, AXP, HES, DNR, KO, PEP, MSFT, INTC and others on the long side and

SHORTS:

QQQ, IWM, TNA, VXX, SINA, LNKD, GMCR, PEET, CRM, etc… on the short side…

5 Undervalued Stocks Ready to Take Off

       So, the markets today can be characterized by strong performances out of the tech space and new media while a weak performance out of less sexy industries has left several stocks trading below cash or net current asset values. Here are some issues which appear to be too cheap to ignore here and look to be solid long term investment values.

HAST — Hastings is dirt cheap on assets and free cash flow with a price to tangible book ratio of around .35X — the thirty five cent dollar is also free cash flow positive and delivered investors a 10% free cash flow yield… just last quarter alone… The pessimism here is more a function of a tiny float and retail investors setting stop loss orders in my view. HAST revenue is extremely diversified and does not suffer from technology changes in the same way that a BAMM or BGP does — the business is only 21% books, with 20% or so of that being used and value priced merchandise.

NWLI — at 40% or so of book value, this life insurance company looks to be a steal at current prices. NWLI is trading for around 7X earnings and the company has a high amount of insider ownership. NWLI is likely the cheapest domestic based life insurance stock based on assets minus liabilities but remember that much of the company’s shareholder equity relates to deferred long term asset charges.

GBR — Another 30 cent dollar Net Net play which investors have all but thrown away. With $18MM in the bank and only a $5MM market cap, look for shares of GBR to outperform the markets substantially over the coming year.

RIMM — Research in Motion’s forward PE ratio is now UNDER 5X which suggests to me that the stock is a good long term bargain at current prices. RIMM shares are too cheap to ignore and betting against the company seems highly irrational given the business’s strengths in secure network administration and high customer loyalty in the business market. A lower price point also helps the Blackberry maker defend market share and once they launch 4G phones I expect RIMM to make up significant lost ground in the third and fourth quarters.

MSFT — Mister softy trading below 8X forward earnings if you net out their cash which makes the shares dirt cheap in my view. Strong cloud computing market position as well as the Skype move mean that MSFT is well positioned for future growth.

All in all, look for strength in the cheaper areas of the marketplace but sell covered calls against your stocks when possible and when call premiums deliver an attractive yield. Covered call selling has shown to provide a much better Sharpe Ratio and strong risk adjusted Alpha when compared to index fund investing. If you can buy cheap stocks and add even more Alpha with covered calls, your investments should take off from here.

Look at $57.15 on QQQ for a Buy Signal Into Tomorrow/Next Week for Other Stocks

the high after the gap down on Monday for QQQ was $57.15 so make sure to cover your incremental hedges and shorts at that level… The 50 Day is the next level to watch on the QQQ at $57.47 — above that level and we get a solid buy signal.

I think some names are cheap enough to own unhedged here like MSFT, INTC, RIMM, JASO, etc… etc… So look to add some long esposure if we close above $57.15 — if not, be very carefull as even though we have an unfilled gap above us, the markets are still below the 50 day Moving Averages… Stay very nimble here and i’m glad I warned you yesterday about today’s bounce…

Follow $57.15 for your short term signal, although longer term I am bearish on IWM and a little bearish on QQQ at least relative to AAPL, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, RIMM, JASO, ORCL – buying in the money puts on QQQ and going long these stocks looks good.

Made 3 trades so far today

Bought 1000 MSFT at $24.38 and sold at $24.68

Bought 3000 LDK at $6.20 and sold at $6.67

Bought 2000 JASO and holding them still…

Not bragging just pointing out how hedgephone.com and my articles on seekingalpha can help readers…

NOTE: I have been exceptionally accurate (not bragging, but its been 10 years now of 12 hour days in this game) on my overall market direction calls, but i have been horrible in some of my short position calls because of CRM mainly. That said, I will be looking to short more pump and dump scams here and letting you know which names I really think are due to crash.

Currently, I am bearish on LNKD, but suggest using a 2% stop loss order and also only shorting the shares intraday… Also CRM is a potential short here, but you have to set tight stops.

other than that I think IWM is overvalued and noticed the QQQ is not holding up very well today…

good luck out there!

Me Thinks We Get a Strong Bounce Tomorrow: My Oversold Buys

Catch a Falling Knife? Only when that falling knife is insanely cheap…. here are the stocks I want to own/trade and buy tomorrow:

My Seeking Alpha Post today:

com/article/271948-5-undervalued-and-oversold-bounce-candidates

CVX

RIMM

INTC

MSFT

COP

JASO

LDK

————————————————-

About as contrarian as you can get — MSFT is the no brainer at $24… too cheap here, and INTC is a good company as well as a cheap stock. RIMM is too hated, while the Solars can’t catch a break although the recent 20% up move in HSOL has me feeling bullish for the other stocks in the chinese solar space…

BUY BUY BUY… Bounce Time… Buy dips sell rips till QE ends… then you just have to go short the Russell….lol…

Value Investing Update: RIMM, MSFT, HPQ Look Decent on a Free Cash Flow Basis

However each of these businesses are facing challenges in their competitive positions in core markets. For HPQ it is the slowdown in PC sales, for RIMM the obvious blackberry 4G concerns linger, for MSFT the acquisition as well as the cloud risks are the overhang… In each of these cases I feel the stock selloffs are overdone and that investors can dip in by selling a January 2012 at the money call option against MSFT and even CSCO and buy the stock in an equal amount. In Rimm and MSFT’s case, I also like selling at the money put options for the January 2012 strikes….

For HPQ, I prefer a calendar call spread, or buying a January 2012 $30 call and selling the June $37 calls… This trade is more of a bet that the stock will stay flat and helps provide an income stream while we wait for the price of the stock to firm up a bit before purchasing the name… I want to see what will happen in the overall markets, and also the back month in the money put should move higher and faster than the front month call, meaning that we are essentially “getting long” some HPQ…

Another way to play HPQ would be to buy 1000 shares of stock and to buy 10 January 2012 HPQ $40 put options… This is a more conservative way to bet on volatility to the upside without risking a significant amount of capital should things not work out for HPQ…

I do like all of these trades, but using options can help to lower risks versus a buy and hold approach, which may be more difficult given slack in the economy. New Autos, ISM Data, GDP slowdown, Housing data, and the lack of more QE makes the overall market a dicey gamble here… so we want to pick our spots and invest with a solid risk averse approach.