Tag Archive for VALE

3 Undervalued Mining Stocks…

While Iron Ore prices are a much debated hot button issue for investors, I
expect the price of almost every commodity out there to rise over the long term,
even iron ore, with all of the capacity related issues the industry faces.

While The following stocks are primarily supplying steel companies and are
economically sensitive, these names are cheap enough for investors to hold onto
even with the economic headwinds they face. As for gold and silver mining, we
expect the stocks with the highest reserves/market cap ratios to outperform, and
we are especially bullish on mining stocks that have large reserves and positive
free cash flows.

Vale (VALE) – At 5.8X earnings, Vale is
a value here in my opinion, and the stock is simply too cheap to ignore. Given
the constant erosion of paper wealth over time, investors should consider mining
stocks like VALE, which benefit from rising commodity and metals prices. Vale’s
4.6% forward dividend yield is compelling right now, and the stock has lagged
the market over the past year, with the name down some 25% from July of 2011.
Many investors are worried about a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which would
hurt demand for Vale, but we think these fears are overblown and that rising
commodity prices are enough to compensate for China’s vast abandoned cities and
overbuilt property markets. Some of these concerns are worrisome, and the demand side of the VALE and RIO situation should be watched closely.

Read more here:http://seekingalpha.com/article/393121-digging-up-3-cheap-mining-stocks-for-cold-hard-profits

Gap Down Now Filled, Sell all Long Positions in Stocks and Go Short Tech Stocks

You won’t hear that from CNBS… The gap from last week’s selloff is now filled and the ponzi uptick/fakeout/dead cat bounce is now over… You can try to catch the move to $1200 or you can do what I would do which is to short the QQQ or even better short AMZN, CRM, CMG, PANL, MAKO, etc… using options. Eventually these will go Netflix and implode. The question is when the banking cartel/banksters/Fed/Geethner will allow them to crash and plummet…

More to come… Also, Silver and Gold look buyable here as Gold simply retested the uptrend line which held. Stocks look bearish while commodities look tentitavely bullish so you can stay long a Rogers Raw Materials Fund, gold, silver, etc… and short stocks here for a longer term trade…

Commodity stocks look dirt cheap, especially VALE, COP, HES, NEM, PBR, CVX, STO, etc…

Eurozone Debt and Banking Crisis — Bigger than You Think…

Every rally is a selling opportunity for the QQQ and the high valuation equities here, while MSFT, INTC, OSK, VALE, FCX, NWLI, ASI, KCLI, JNJ, COP, HES, etc… look undervalued here….

Be ready to sell rips and buy dips (AS ALWAYS) in the next few weeks… Keep in mind that the Europe problems are far worse than anyone can imagine.

Corruption and Lies are in a BULL MARKET!

Memorial Day Mining Stock Due Diligence

So while most investment managers are out touring their Bentleys and Rolls Royces around Bevery Hills or the Hamptons right now, our team of overly-ambitious analysts are hard at work finding the most undervalued names in the hard asset space for Hedgephone.com readers and letting investors and money managers know about our top picks in the mining and hard asset space. Here are our 7 very best ideas for hard asset investing:

FCX — Freeport is dirt cheap on net assets in the ground with over 4 billion pounds of copper and gold and silver deposits that are worth more than the company’s enterprise vale. FCX is trading for less than ten times operating cash flow and for a forward PE ratio of around 9X. The stock is cheap, but we like selling the January 2012 $50 put options for an additional margin of safety

VALE — Vale is our favorite idea in the mining space at just 6X earnings. Brazil is crashing with the rest of the Brics right now, but we think the stock is oversold and offers investors solid upside potential. Like FCX, we prefer selling the $30 January 2012 put options against VALE to capture theta decay and option premium while we won’t be “put” the stock unless VALE drops significantly from current levels.

NEM — Newmont is too cheap to ignore on a Net asset value basis with gold in the ground worth significantly more than the company’s current market capitalization. We like NEM and again recommend selling January 2012 at the money puts here.

TOT — Total is dirt cheap while paying a solid dividend. Covered calls look the most interesting to us for a longer term position and we think that at 8X earnings the stock is a true bargain.

STO — Priced in Norwegian Kronors, we think STO is a cheap name at under 9X forward earnings while helping to diversify investors out of U.S. Dollar denominated assets. STO offers a rare blend of currency hedge, oil assets below intrinsic value, and a strong management team with proven assets.

COP — too cheap to ignore here with a price to operating cash flow of less than 8X… COP is truly cheap here and again we like selling the January 2012 $72.50 puts for around $6.60 for a return of roughly 10% between now and january of next year, or an approximate 1% per month return. If the stock shoots up, we are happy with our payout of 1% a month and if the stock drops we are happy to own the name at a cheaper valuation.

CVX — Chevron is another cheap oil and gas name here and again we like the idea of selling a longer dated at the money put option against the name. The stock has run a bit from our initial buy target of $100.50 but we still think the name has a long way to run given the boost in oil prices we expect from the summer driving season and the last month of QE2.

Markets Soft Today and Looking Weak

Stock markets are lower today while gold and silver trade higher, which is exactly what Hedgephone.com readers were expecting! Congrats to those who joined me in this trade which is now up 4-5% in the past few sessions… Look for this trend to continue but also look for places to take profits.

I am currently looking at FCX and VALE again today as well as some CVX as cheap plays on the commodity long side of the tape while considering shorting some of the hyped up MOMO names intraday like CRM and NFLX…

I am also looking to add to some short IWM call exposure here, but alas, it’s hard to be in every market at once…

AMZN was off $2 to $194, OPEN still under $90, IWM down a bit, QQQ off .5% as of last check…

Look for some areas of support.. I am long the in the money QQQ puts and now short some June $55 puts as a hedge…

Remember to play both offense and defense here, buying cheap names and shorting expensive names with tight stop loss orders in place. Also, look toward shorting index funds versus individual stocks here as some of the mega trends look overvalued while they keep pumping higher…

That said, there are some good opportunities on the short side in individual stocks and I will update throughout the trading day…

Midday Hedgephone Macro Update: Stocks Lower/Gold Higher

Looks like our Sunday Macro Madness was right on the money: http://hedgephone.com/?p=984

Expect stocks to recover a bit from the lows as the POMO money dump takes the overvalued GMCR’s and TZOO’s of the world a little higher, which will put the speculation back in the speculators via the POMO desk and Brian Sack… The market is getting a full Zap of POMO juice for the rest of the week, so investors may want to take some profits on incremental short positions in equities and buy some FCX, VALE, and SGOL… These are just three of my favorite names here, but I expect all of them to significantly outperform the averages over time (and apparently so does Soros on the FCX anyways, as he bought 300K shares after dumping his GLD at a huge profit)…

I will be looking to cover some things this afternoon, but will remain fully hedged in the stock market and long some metals because valuations for equities are ripe while QE is driving asset prices higher regardless of the expensive valuations for stocks — QE is a tough call and not what I would have done, but then again I’m no central banker!

In the end, every red blooded American like me hopes for Blue Skies ahead, but in my heart of hearts I can’t help but feel skeptical of the stock market which is up 110% from the lows…

Best wishes for successful investing HP’s!