Tag Archive for Web 2.0 bubble

Internet Bubble 2.0 — From www.dnaindia.com

One billion dollars for a company that has not even hit its second birthday, makes virtually no money and has just 13 employees on its payroll. It all sounds a bit fantastical – and worryingly familiar.

Facebook’s acquisition of Instagram has immediately sparked fears of another dotcom bubble, turning a handful of bright entrepreneurs into overnight multi-millionaires but threatening to leave a wider pool of investors with their fingers badly burned.

Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger, the two young Stanford University graduates who developed the addictive photosharing app, will make around $400m (pounds 252m) and $100m respectively from the deal. Systrom, who turned down a job offer from Facebook in 2004 in order to finish his studies, joked that the sale will enable him to afford a few more bottles of Champagne. With that sort of money, he could buy the bubbly producer and a lot more besides.

Facebook has doubled the value put on Instagram just a week ago, when it closed a $50m funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital. Put another way, it has paid $80m per employee and more than $33 for every one of Instagram’s 30m users. It’s even valued the company ahead of The New York Times, which has a market capitalisation of $942m.

This trajectory and these sorts of overnight riches call to mind the gold rush of the late 1990s and early 2000s, typified by AOL’s $400m payout for Mirabilis, an Israeli instant messaging firm, or Lastminute.com’s extraordinary flotation.

The online travel business placed at 380p a share in March 2000, two years after its launch, valuing the business at pounds 571m and netting its twenty-something founders, Brent Hoberman and Martha Lane Fox, pounds 300m.

On its first day of trading, its share price closed at 492.5p, turning the pair into the posterchildren for dotcom success. However, within weeks Lastminute’s share price had dropped to below 190p, and markets around the world crashed as rattled investors cashed out of the sector. More than $1 trillion was wiped off the US markets in a single day.

There have been other high-profile casualties since then. ITV bought Friends Reunited for pounds 120m in 2005, but four years later sold it to DC Thomson, owner of The Beano, for just pounds 25m. Last year, DC Thomson told shareholders Friends Reunited was worth just over pounds 5m. Similarly, News Corporation shelled out $580m for MySpace in 2005, but booked a $545m loss when it sold the company last year to an online advertising venture backed by the singer Justin Timberlake.

However, Facebook’s Instagram deal also has shades of the social network’s own early days. In 2006, Facebook was locked in talks with Yahoo! over a $1bn sale. Yahoo! lowered its offer to $800m late in the day but many analysts were still stupefied that Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, walked away. To say he was vindicated is an understatement. Facebook’s own IPO next month is expected to value the social network at more than $100bn – 25 times its historic revenues, 100 times its net profits or alternatively, around $117 per user.

Of course, sceptics could be forgiven for joining the dots between the two events. Facebook’s flotation is much more likely to go smoothly if technology valuations are high. However, much more likely is that Facebook recognised in Instagram a similar growth story to its own, and a huge potential threat.

Systrom and Krieger have rapidly built a network based on sharing photographs – arguably the cornerstone of Facebook and the feature most often cited as the reason people join in the first place, or feel they cannot leave.

Sam Hamadeh, chief executive of PrivCo, a US research company which studies privately-held businesses, claims it was a defensive buy. “This is not about money-making now… it is trying to buy out the next Facebook,” he says.

It is also about preventing others from doing so.

According to reports, Google also held talks with Instagram within the last month, helping to drive up the price. Ray Valdes, an analyst at Gartner, the technology research firm, says: “You can view the $1bn as an insurance payment against a possible mortal threat if it fell into the hands of one of its competitors. If Facebook is valued at $100bn, 1pc of that figure seems like a reasonable payment.”

The deal will also drive up the price of competitors.Hamadeh estimates that Tumblr, another photo-based social networking site, and Pinterest, the rapidly growing “digital pinboard” which allows users to share photos and other favourite items online, could go for $2bn each.

But while the ripple effect will be broad, Valdes expects just a handful of companies to see an Instagram-style spike in value.

“The downturn and the last dotcom bubble will have a sobering effect,” he says. “There are still some deep scars that have left lasting memories.”

The Daily Telegraph

Photography put Stanford graduates in frame together

Kevin Systrom, Instagram’s 28-year-old co-founder, rejected a job at Facebook when he was still an undergraduate at Stanford University, preferring to finish his degree in management science and engineering. He still managed to cut his teeth at some of the technology industry’s biggest names, however, first with an internship at Odeo, the company which became Twitter, and then with two years at Google where he worked on products such as Gmail and Google Reader.

In 2010, he decided to combine his technology expertise with a long-standing love of photography and went into business with Mike Krieger, Instagram’s leading developer.

Although the pair never met at university, Brazilian-born Mr Krieger was also at Stanford and wrote his thesis on the way computer interfaces can be used to get people to collaborate on a large scale.

He honed his technical skills at Microsoft, working in its PowerPoint team, and then at the instant messaging network Meebo – first as a user-experience designer and latterly as a front-end engineer.

That technical knowledge has helped Instagram to attract the 30m users that so impressed Facebook.

Trade with HEDGE PHONE and Make Money… Our Latest Seekingalpha Research…

Most investors think a good business idea equates to a solid long term investment. While this is true on balance to some degree, many people don’t understand that stocks trade in a market and like all markets things are marked up and go on sale for many different reasons, not all of them rational or honest. Indeed, in many markets items are overpriced or sold below wholesale cost because of supply and demand factors. The stock market, despite what efficient market theorists believe, is no different at all. If a certain large trader for a bank or hedge fund wants to mark the tape and “make” a stock he is long or short move in a desired direction the trader can simply push the stock where he wants it to trade. If you are in cohorts with other major players in the market, this type of market manipulation is as easy as third grade math. When ABN and Fidelity decide that XYZ should trade for X one of the institutions simply places the bid out there and the other institution can move in behind the bid with more buy orders to “beef up” the tape even if that institution doesn’t really want the stock in question. While this type of “bad boy” trading is technically illegal, it happens all the time and in just about every equity imaginable. What astute traders have to learn is how to decode a “promotion” or a “pool” in order to find out when the party ends and the stock in question is going to blow up.

With web 2.0 names, the key is to stick with the smaller players and trade from the short side. Wait until the issue becomes extremely overbought on all chart time periods from the 5 day to the one month to the one year and short small amounts with tight stop losses. When a bubble finally pops, you have to be in it to win it from a short selling perspective and a bunch of tiny losses can be made back and profits reaped by holding short with tight stop orders in place.

Another technique is played out using options. Many shorts find an overvalued and over-hyped pump to short but constantly get stopped out right before a massive crash. The traders in these think that nothing can be done to short such momo darlings and give up with losses because they either lack the time or discipline it takes to trade with the trend in the stock. Waiting for the right entry point is key, but another strategy is to buy call options in the same notional amount as the shares you are shorting. For example, you may think Salesforce.com (CRM) is going to blow up so you short 1,000 shares and buy 10 slightly out of the money or in the money three month out call options on CRM as a hedge. If the stock moves higher, you can sleep easy knowing that the call protects your risk and that your max loss on such a position is around 5-7% depending on your strike price.

 

Read More Here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/514431-4-overpriced-web-stocks-to-avoid

Current Technology Bubble Sucking Wind…

So going over our short signal on 7/7/2011 we can see that the IWM is down approximately 7% while the Nasdaq 100 is down only 1.5% or so… So does this mean that the Nasdaq 100 is safer than the IWM? In my opinion no it does not — the tech bubble is back and LNKD, OPEN, AMZN, NFLX, etc… show us that tech stocks are very vulnerable to a bear market for equities. With that said, we are not saying switch from IWM shorts to QQQ shorts but we are worried for the high valuation “growth” bubble stocks that are “leading” stocks at present. If we were actively shorting the leaders, we would note the action in former leaders as a proxy for how far the current leaders could fall. Look at AKAM which is now down 50% or JASO which is down 70% from the highs for a proxy of how far AMZN, CRM, LNKD, KKD, etc.. can fall from here. If you own these stocks, you should sell them regardless of the overall direction of the stock market or the debt ceiling farce.

The bubble is acting piggishly, and as my father put it, “when pigs die, their squeels burn circles” — that’s all that’s going on in QQQ… The banskters want their IPO money from Facebook and Groupon… They need to keep LNKD up in order to do just that, but the debt ceiling epic fail will destroy the high PE tech stocks.

Blodget Bubble 2.0?

So I did not realize that Blodget owned Business Insider until recently, which now makes perfect sense. Obviously he is a humble genius and also a great writer and speaker. . Business Insider is worth 500MM if the bubble can stay afloat. Either way, he is worth at least $100MM from the business insider no MATTER WHAT happens to the tech bubble, but knowing that old habits die hard it is clear that he wants a higher price for LNKD, NFLX, OPEN, AMZN, etc… because on a relative value basis he can float the Business Insider for at least a Billion dollars soon. I commend Henry on making a stellar comeback but I wonder if the bubble in social media and the web this time is even more crooked and deceitful than the last time…

What about all of the job losses? Hopefully Henry will stop talking about them on Tech Ticker and will start hiring in droves at the Business Insider… Another tech bubble is NOT what the economy needs right now — what we need is to get rid of crony capitalism and the SkyNET-ification of our economy… All this coming from me — an over educated ex-trader and self-employed blogger seems intense and bizarre but in the end, the 1984 world we are entering is just too stratified to be American, where we are all supposed to have a chance to make it to the top… Hopefully, the Business Insider (which is awesome and I have been a reader for some time now) can find a way to give back… Newspapers wasted lots of trees but they also created lots of jobs.

Blogging economics are much better than newspaper economics and it is inspiring to see a guy like Henry make a solid comeback and hit the big time with his Blog… Truly a great story in itself…. That said, the man will be worth $100MM with or without a bubble, so hopefully he will skew towards a less pro-SKYNET cloud/social/e commerce agenda as the move to the web is bankrupting our states, putting our elderly and rural brothers and sisters out of work, and making America an impossible place for most people to find a job! A tech bubble will just enrich those who already have huge sums of money at the expense of those who work in factories and stores across the country….

All of this is solely my opinion, and I am a huge fan of Blodget and B.I. — Nice to see a WordPress Blog worth a billion bucks! Pretty motivating, and that part of the bubble argument I do agree with! PS: way to go on the comeback Henry – the Pic was found on Google Images and was simply too funny to resist….

Web 2.0 — Is It a Bubble? Depends Who You Ask

According to those looking to sell shares at 30X sales and 1000 times earnings of course there is no bubble… However, according to those investors who have been there and done that, this time is obviously no different than 1999-2000 when the same kind of rubbish was floated by the investment banks to the unsuspecting public.

It’s always funny to watch those with vested interests in promoting a stock bubble deny that a bubble exists. The problem with modern portfolio theory and with efficient markets theory in general is that manias and bubbles do exist but these academic fallacies are used in order to deny their existance. If I sold you a dollar for $1.50 you would be angry at me, but if I sold you a web stock with a price that was fifty percent too high you would simply call it a fair trade in that the market is 100% efficient and as such there is no price too high or too low for a given security.

Why is it that academia is always so wrong about efficient markets? I think it has to do with incentives. The investment banks love efficient market theory as it basically gives them a license to steal from the public. Float an LNKD at 1000 times earnings and blame it on the market…

According to the guy who bought the stock at $120, no price is too high for such a security, but in the end a stock is only worth its future claim on cash flow dividends and share repurchases in so much that these activites are accretive to stockholder value. In other words, stocks are worth what they can deliver back to stockholders in the form of cold, hard cash. Owning a hot dot stock today is no different from holding a hot dot stock in 2000 — the only difference is that today the names have changed with the tickers and of course there are many internet stocks which are undervalued even at hig PE ratios because of future growth rates… You simply can’t make blanket statements, however it is clear to me that as a whole the sector right now is priced for absolute perfection.